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How Oklahoma will stop the Alabama offense part 2.

In this second part I want to draw focus to the game-by-game passing stats of the Alabama offense and Oklahoma defense, and by how much we can be expected to be rolled by the tide.

(Skip to each BOLD SUMMARY marker if this info is a bit TL:DR.)

ALABAMA 2018 OFFENSIVE YARDS/COMPLETION (under Tua):

18.9 yards per COMPLETION- against 99th ranked yards/completion defense

17.5 yards per COMPLETION- against 71st ranked yards/completion defense

17.4- against 75th

17.6- against 117th

16.0- against 123rd

33.4- against 115th

22.1- against 119th

16.1- against 73rd

11.8- against 59th

11.7- against 4th

13.0- against 79th

16.4- against 8th

You will notice the Alabama offense (under Tua) was held to 13.0 yards/completion or less on 3 occasions, against the 4th, 59th, and 79th ranked yards/completion defense. This is a telling sign for Oklahoma fans, being the 59th ranked defense is only .9 yards/completion better than we are, and the 79th ranked defense is a mere .5 yards/completion better than we are. Don't go placing bets down just yet, this isn't a "guarantee", merely a possible statistic we may see if the cards fall where they fall.

Not so good for Oklahoma fans, is the fact that when facing defenses ranked 71st-123rd in yards/completion (Oklahoma is ranked 95th), Alabama averages 19.1 yards per completion (17.3 when eliminating the three outliers in this grouping), with a range of 16.0-18.9 when accounting for the three outliers.

*I am making note of the outliers to give a better idea of what we can expect on an "average" game we would play against them. Take note of the statistics and ranges posted without the outliers, then look to the outliers specifically to see POSSIBLE games we could have. For example, Alabama typically plays between 16.0 and 19.0 yards/completion against similar ranked defenses, but depending on special circumstances we could hold them as low as 13.0 or as high as 33.4.

Now, looking at Oklahoma's 2018 season (tries not to cry):

11.0- against the 43rd ranked yards/completion OFFENSE

15.9- against the 81st ranked yards/completion OFFENSE

14.4- against 31st

13.3- against 2nd (only 3 completions)

10.4- against 80th

12.5- against 86th

16.3- against 99th

8.3- against 91st

12.2- against 98th

14.7- against 17th

8.8- against 124th (Kansas)

16.8- against 13th

15.2- against 86th

Against offenses ranked 81-130: Average of 12.7 (+1.2 above their season average). 3/4 of our worst games.

Against offenses ranked 41-80: Average of 10.7 (-1.75 their season average)... Only 2 games in this sample

Against offenses ranked 1-40 (not counting Army): Average of 15.3 (+1.4 their season average)

*I didn't count Army (2nd in yards/completion) in the last group because they only had 3 completed passes. It lowers that group's overall statistics, which is nice, but really doesn't make sense to add it in when we don't know if the 13.3 average against them would have stayed the same given even 3 extra completions that game.

SUMMARY

We allowed an extra +1.4 to the 3 other top 40 offenses' season averages. If this stays true against Tua, he would average 16.8 (his average) + 1.4 = 18.1 yards per attempt. This falls into our expected average range against them of 16.0-19.0. Could possibly see a 13.0 or lower outing based on several of Alabama's previous games, could also get rolled over and give up 22.0 or 33.0 lol... Just have to wait and see.

COMPLETION PERCENTAGE:

Tua in 2018:

75.0% against 125th ranked opponent/completion percentage defense.

68.4% against 38th ranked opponent/completion percentage defense.

73.3- against 104th

73.3- against 84th

100.0- against 43rd (only 8 attempts)

76.9- against 47th

54.5- against 21st

65.5- against 118th

59.5- against 3rd

66.7- against 25th

78.1- against 27th

40.0- against 68th

(I added up each individual completion and attempt from every game in each group to give an overall average for the group, instead of games with low attempts such as Louisiana (8/8) giving a lopsided percentage.)

Tua's average completion % against defenses ranked 1-40 (5): 65.4

Tua's average completion % against defenses ranked 41-80 (3): 60.9

Tua's average completion % against defenses ranked 81-130 (4): 71.0

Note the 68th ranked defense (only 2.88% better than us) held Tua to 40.0 and 118th held him to 65.5%. Not much else hope here.

We're the (cries deeply) 101 ranked completion percentage defense. He likely serves 71.0 or better based on his season averages.

We faced 4 teams top 40 in completion percentage (We didn't face top 20 ISU and Texas Tech's starters).

#14- Season average was 66.14% we held them to 65.3%: -.84%

#20- Season average was 64.73% we held them to 70.3%: +5.57% (Loss against Texas)

#20- Season average was 64.73% we held them to 62.2%: -2.53%

#37- Season average was 61.98% we held them to 56.3%: -4.34%

Average of -.54% their season average. (although -2.57% when only accounting for wins!)

SUMMARY

-.5% Tua's season average is 67.2%, which is significantly better than the 71.0% he averages against defenses ranked 81-130. Our best pass-defensive games came against the very best pass-happy QBs we faced. And as EVERY OU FAN KNOWS....: That quarterback that looks shit against everyone else has a career day against Oklahoma.

I'm not going to pick one or the other. On average we're a horrible pass defense, but against good quarterbacks we've done fairly well in this category. I'll do a stat comparison on what we may expect accounting for both so you can see what would happen in both circumstances.

EXPECTED PASS DEFENSE OVERVIEW:

We can expect to see right at or around 18.0 yards per completion (which is just a nightmare come true).

We could realistically see anywhere between 67.2% to 71.0%, depending if we see "an average OU defense" or "an OU defense that has shown up against all good QBs this year.

ON 16.0 YARDS PER COMPLETION:

If Tua throws 30 attempts: 322.6 OR 340.8 (depending on either 67.2% or 71.0% completion)

If Tua throws 40 attempts: 430.1 OR 454.4

If Tua throws 50 attempts: 537.6 OR 568.0

ON 18.0 YARDS PER COMPLETION:

If Tua throws 30 attempts: 362.9 OR 383.4 (depending on either 67.2% or 71.0% completion)

If Tua throws 40 attempts: 483.8 OR 511.2

If Tua throws 50 attempts: 604.8 OR 639.0

ON 20.0 YARDS PER COMPLETION:

If Tua throws 30 attempts: 403.2 OR 426.0 (depending on either 67.2% or 71.0% completion)

If Tua throws 40 attempts: 537.6 OR 568.0

If Tua throws 50 attempts: 672 OR 710.0

This bold grouping above is what the predicted yardage SHOULD be, based on season averages. The rest is just a guidebook for personal use, if you are curious what would the yardage be given a set yard/completion and completion percentage. That's all based on math, done on a calculator. Or if you want to figure out what a specific stat would be just use this "formula": "yards/completion" multiplied by "attempts" divided by completion percentage (50% would be .50 NOT 50.0).

So, based on this we can expect... 5 passing touchdowns? 6? Lol... Hopefully we play better than "average". The previous fanpost showed how we can hold them below 4 passing TDs. Gotta knock that yards/completion down to about 15.0 and the completion percentage as low as possible, preferably 60% or close to it. Don't expect either though, it's going to be a long game.

Part 3 is next, its based on our run defense. Which is A LOT more fun to read over.

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