FanPost

OU Bowl Projections

As stated in my previous post, OU has a 0.04% chance of going to the Fiesta Bowl. What are the likely bowl possibilities for the 99.96% chance OU does not go to the Fiesta Bowl? You can find the 2013-2014 Big 12 bowl lineup here. Under the assumption that OU does not get chosen as an at-large bid for the Sugar Bowl, there are three main bowls in which OU will get selected: Cotton Bowl, Alamo Bowl, Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl.

Cotton Bowl:
The possible scenarios in which OU receives the berth to the Cotton Bowl are the following:

  • BU wins the conference outright at 8-1 (11-1 overall). This would mean either a two-way tie at 7-2 in conference between OU and OSU or a three-way tie at 7-2 in conference between OU, OSU, and UT. In either scenario, OU would be picked second since OU would have beaten OSU and have a better overall record than UT.
  • OSU and BU run the table and both earn a BCS bid. Since OU would have a higher overall record than UT, OU gets selected to the Cotton Bowl.

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl:
The Alamo Bowl is the next best bowl to which to receive a berth, but it is simpler to list the possible cases for this one than the Alamo Bowl. So, it is being listed beforehand in this list. The only case in which OU goes to the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl is a scenario where UT runs the table, BU beats TCU and OSU beats OU. In this case, UT has the same overall record as OU at 9-3, but would boast a second place finish in the Big 12. Both BU and UT would then likely get chosen before OU.

Alamo Bowl:
In all other possible cases, OU ends up in the Alamo Bowl.

Under the premise that the Big 12 receives two BCS berths if BU and OSU both go 11-1, OU has the following chance to go to each bowl:

  • Fiesta Bowl: 0.04%
  • Cotton Bowl: 83.64%
  • Alamo Bowl: 12.18%
  • Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: 4.14%
Should BU not receive an at-large bid if both BU and OSU go 11-1, then the probabilities get changed to the following:
  • Fiesta Bowl: 0.04%
  • Cotton Bowl: 13.49%
  • Alamo Bowl: 82.33%
  • Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: 4.14%

FanPost are for the voice of the fan and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Crimson and Cream Machine administrators.

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