FanPost

Likelihood of an undefeated season

(Bumped)

Following the theme of way early rankings and predictions, Golden Nugget released spreads for 111 NCAAF games. Since I had already compiled the probability of winning a game based on the spread and location, this allows me to directly predict how likely it would be to win certain games. If you follow the link to Golden Nugget's article, you'll find that they've listed 7 of OU's games (all of which we are favored in).

The only 2 games not listed that I believe could even possibly end in a loss are Texas Tech (something always seems to go wrong in Lubbock) and Iowa State (for some reason they've been able of pulling of monumental upsets, and we have to play in Ames).

September 22: vs. Kansas State (-14.5 spread), chance of winning game: 82.76%

October 13: vs. Texas (-5.5 spread), chance of winning game: 63.55%

October 27: vs. Notre Dame (-11 spread), chance of winning game: 77.85%

November 10: vs. Baylor (-17 spread), chance of winning game: 85.62%

November 17: at West Virginia (-4 spread), chance of winning game: 55.57%

November 24: vs. Oklahoma State (-8 spread), chance of winning game: 72.45%

December 1: at TCU (-9.5 spread), chance of winning game: 70.26%

If you estimate the odds for the Texas Tech game as the same as TCU, the Iowa State game the same as Baylor, and the games against UTEP, Florida A&M, and Kansas as automatic wins, then the overall chance of going undefeated in the regular season comes out to 5.97%. Realistically, the odds will probably be 4-5% as there are no such things as automatic wins (see Appalachian State or James Madison).

Looking at these numbers, it shows just how difficult it is to go undefeated when you play the kind of schedule OU plays. I actually did three simulations, and we had one loss in each simulation (one was to Texas, one was to West Virginia, and one was to TCU). Hopefully, this keeps us from expecting too much as fans. So, let's set the goal of National Championships, but stay away from expecting them.

FanPost are for the voice of the fan and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Crimson and Cream Machine administrators.

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