FanPost

Simulation After Week 2

To those of you who remember my simulation results after week 1, welcome back to the latest installment of my weekly simulations.  To those of you who are new to my simulation or those of you who have forgotten what's included, I'll give a brief explanation.


The first notable calculation would be the predicted BCS standings after week 2.  These rankings are calculated by the Coaches Poll, AP Poll (substitute for the Harris Poll), and two of the six computer rankings (Jeff Sagarin and Richard Billingsley).

My simulation predicts wins and losses for every FBS team based on probabilities calculated by the difference of teams' rankings (probability formula was self-determined). With these probabilities for a particular team to win each game, the probable chance of going undefeated is also calculated.

From the records at the end of the regular season, conference champions are chosen (those conferences with a championship game have it simulated like the regular season).  With final records, strength of schedule is calculated and used in combination with final records to project the final BCS standings.

So, without any further ado, find out the predicted top 25 in the BCS standings after week 2, top 25 teams with the highest chance of going undefeated, conference champions, top 25 teams for strength of schedule, and the projected top 25 in the final BCS standings (with record and teams lossed to) after the jump.

Predicted BCS Standings after Week 2:
  1. LSU (0.9514)
  2. Alabama (0.9413)
  3. Oklahoma (0.9353)
  4. Boise State (0.8319)
  5. Oklahoma State (0.6987)
  6. Stanford (0.6813)
  7. Oregon (0.5988)
  8. Florida State (0.5923)
  9. Wisconsin (0.5826)
  10. Virginia Tech (0.5681)
  11. South Carolina (0.5324)
  12. Nebraska (0.5243)
  13. Ohio State (0.5037)
  14. Texas A&M (0.4802)
  15. Arkansas (0.4438)
  16. Auburn (0.4377)
  17. Michigan State (0.3373)
  18. Florida (0.3261)
  19. Arizona State (0.2611)
  20. West Virginia (0.2551)
  21. Texas (0.2261)
  22. TCU (0.2112)
  23. USC (0.1884)
  24. Baylor (0.1751)
  25. South Florida (0.1491)

Chance of Going Undefeated:

  1. Boise State (21.75%)
  2. Virginia Tech (20.09%)
  3. Houston (17.45%)
  4. Stanford (14.24%)
  5. UCF (12.83%)
  6. Wisconsin (10.70%)
  7. Florida State (8.64%)
  8. Alabama (8.24%)
  9. South Florida (7.23%)
  10. South Carolina (5.55%)
  11. Oklahoma State (5.54%)
  12. LSU (5.18%)
  13. Oklahoma (5.17%)
  14. Nebraska (3.73%)
  15. Ohio State (3.64%)
  16. Oregon (3.49%)
  17. TCU (3.15%)
  18. West Virginia (3.01%)
  19. Arizona State (2.92%)
  20. FIU (2.68%)
  21. Ohio (1.86%)
  22. Michigan State (1.49%)
  23. Pittsburgh (1.17%)
  24. Navy (0.88%)
  25. Texas A&M (0.85%)

Conference Champions:

  • ACC:  North Carolina over Florida State
  • Big 12:  Oklahoma
  • Big East:  South Florida
  • Big Ten:  Wisconsin over Michigan State
  • C-USA:  Houston over UCF
  • MAC:  Northern Illinois over Temple
  • MWC:  Boise State
  • PAC-12:  Arizona State over Stanford
  • SEC:  South Carolina over Alabama
  • Sun Belt:  FIU
  • WAC:  Nevada

Strength of Schedule:

  1. LSU
  2. Colorado
  3. South Carolina
  4. Oklahoma
  5. Missouri
  6. Kansas
  7. Texas
  8. Notre Dame
  9. Texas A&M
  10. Oklahoma State
  11. Iowa State
  12. Baylor
  13. Oregon State
  14. Texas Tech
  15. Florida
  16. Auburn
  17. Kansas State
  18. Arkansas
  19. Mississippi
  20. Clemson
  21. USC
  22. Georgia
  23. Oregon
  24. Arizona State
  25. Miami (FL)

Projected Final BCS Standings:

  1. South Carolina:  12-1 (0.9389), Losses:  Auburn
  2. Boise State:  12-0 (0.9042), Losses:  None
  3. USC:  11-1 (0.9032), Losses:  Arizona State
  4. North Carolina:  11-1 (0.8769), Losses:  Virginia Tech
  5. Oklahoma:  10-2 (0.8656), Losses:  Florida State, Oklahoma State
  6. LSU:  10-2 (0.8550), Losses:  Kentucky, Alabama
  7. Arizona State:  11-2 (0.8450), Losses:  Illinois, Oregon
  8. South Florida:  11-1 (0.8364), Losses:  UTEP
  9. UCF:  12-1 (0.8308), Losses:  Houston (C-USA Championship)
  10. Florida State:  11-2 (0.8277), Losses:  Florida, North Carolina (ACC Championship)
  11. Nebraska:  10-2 (0.8238), Losses:  Ohio State, Michigan
  12. Houston:  12-1 (0.8045), Losses:  SMU
  13. Alabama:  10-3 (0.8033), Losses:  Mississippi State, Auburn, South Carolina (SEC Championship)
  14. West Virginia:  10-2 (0.7987), Losses:  LSU, South Florida
  15. Oklahoma State:  9-3 (0.7913), Losses:  Tulsa, Texas, Baylor
  16. Baylor:  9-3 (0.7881), Losses:  Kansas State, Texas A&M, Oklahoma
  17. Florida:  9-3 (0.7821), Losses:  Alabama, LSU, South Carolina
  18. Arkansas:  9-3 (0.7799), Losses:  Alabama, South Carolina, LSU
  19. Michigan State:  10-3 (0.7755), Losses:  Notre Dame, Nebraska, Wisconsin (Big Ten Championship)
  20. Oregon:  9-3 (0.7751), Losses:  LSU, Stanford, USC
  21. Virginia Tech:  10-2 (0.7708), Losses:  Wake Forest, Georgia Tech
  22. Stanford:  10-3 (0.7680), Losses:  USC, Notre Dame, Arizona State (PAC-12 Championship)
  23. TCU:  10-2 (0.7589), Losses:  Baylor, Boise State
  24. FIU:  11-1 (0.7584), Losses:  UCF
  25. Wisconsin:  10-3 (0.7548), Losses:  Nebraska, Michigan State, Illinios

FanPost are for the voice of the fan and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Crimson and Cream Machine administrators.

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