To those of you who remember my simulation results after week 1, welcome back to the latest installment of my weekly simulations. To those of you who are new to my simulation or those of you who have forgotten what's included, I'll give a brief explanation.
The first notable calculation would be the predicted BCS standings after week 2. These rankings are calculated by the Coaches Poll, AP Poll (substitute for the Harris Poll), and two of the six computer rankings (Jeff Sagarin and Richard Billingsley).
My simulation predicts wins and losses for every FBS team based on probabilities calculated by the difference of teams' rankings (probability formula was self-determined). With these probabilities for a particular team to win each game, the probable chance of going undefeated is also calculated.
From the records at the end of the regular season, conference champions are chosen (those conferences with a championship game have it simulated like the regular season). With final records, strength of schedule is calculated and used in combination with final records to project the final BCS standings.
So, without any further ado, find out the predicted top 25 in the BCS standings after week 2, top 25 teams with the highest chance of going undefeated, conference champions, top 25 teams for strength of schedule, and the projected top 25 in the final BCS standings (with record and teams lossed to) after the jump.
Predicted BCS Standings after Week 2:- LSU (0.9514)
- Alabama (0.9413)
- Oklahoma (0.9353)
- Boise State (0.8319)
- Oklahoma State (0.6987)
- Stanford (0.6813)
- Oregon (0.5988)
- Florida State (0.5923)
- Wisconsin (0.5826)
- Virginia Tech (0.5681)
- South Carolina (0.5324)
- Nebraska (0.5243)
- Ohio State (0.5037)
- Texas A&M (0.4802)
- Arkansas (0.4438)
- Auburn (0.4377)
- Michigan State (0.3373)
- Florida (0.3261)
- Arizona State (0.2611)
- West Virginia (0.2551)
- Texas (0.2261)
- TCU (0.2112)
- USC (0.1884)
- Baylor (0.1751)
- South Florida (0.1491)
Chance of Going Undefeated:
- Boise State (21.75%)
- Virginia Tech (20.09%)
- Houston (17.45%)
- Stanford (14.24%)
- UCF (12.83%)
- Wisconsin (10.70%)
- Florida State (8.64%)
- Alabama (8.24%)
- South Florida (7.23%)
- South Carolina (5.55%)
- Oklahoma State (5.54%)
- LSU (5.18%)
- Oklahoma (5.17%)
- Nebraska (3.73%)
- Ohio State (3.64%)
- Oregon (3.49%)
- TCU (3.15%)
- West Virginia (3.01%)
- Arizona State (2.92%)
- FIU (2.68%)
- Ohio (1.86%)
- Michigan State (1.49%)
- Pittsburgh (1.17%)
- Navy (0.88%)
- Texas A&M (0.85%)
Conference Champions:
- ACC: North Carolina over Florida State
- Big 12: Oklahoma
- Big East: South Florida
- Big Ten: Wisconsin over Michigan State
- C-USA: Houston over UCF
- MAC: Northern Illinois over Temple
- MWC: Boise State
- PAC-12: Arizona State over Stanford
- SEC: South Carolina over Alabama
- Sun Belt: FIU
- WAC: Nevada
Strength of Schedule:
- LSU
- Colorado
- South Carolina
- Oklahoma
- Missouri
- Kansas
- Texas
- Notre Dame
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma State
- Iowa State
- Baylor
- Oregon State
- Texas Tech
- Florida
- Auburn
- Kansas State
- Arkansas
- Mississippi
- Clemson
- USC
- Georgia
- Oregon
- Arizona State
- Miami (FL)
Projected Final BCS Standings:
- South Carolina: 12-1 (0.9389), Losses: Auburn
- Boise State: 12-0 (0.9042), Losses: None
- USC: 11-1 (0.9032), Losses: Arizona State
- North Carolina: 11-1 (0.8769), Losses: Virginia Tech
- Oklahoma: 10-2 (0.8656), Losses: Florida State, Oklahoma State
- LSU: 10-2 (0.8550), Losses: Kentucky, Alabama
- Arizona State: 11-2 (0.8450), Losses: Illinois, Oregon
- South Florida: 11-1 (0.8364), Losses: UTEP
- UCF: 12-1 (0.8308), Losses: Houston (C-USA Championship)
- Florida State: 11-2 (0.8277), Losses: Florida, North Carolina (ACC Championship)
- Nebraska: 10-2 (0.8238), Losses: Ohio State, Michigan
- Houston: 12-1 (0.8045), Losses: SMU
- Alabama: 10-3 (0.8033), Losses: Mississippi State, Auburn, South Carolina (SEC Championship)
- West Virginia: 10-2 (0.7987), Losses: LSU, South Florida
- Oklahoma State: 9-3 (0.7913), Losses: Tulsa, Texas, Baylor
- Baylor: 9-3 (0.7881), Losses: Kansas State, Texas A&M, Oklahoma
- Florida: 9-3 (0.7821), Losses: Alabama, LSU, South Carolina
- Arkansas: 9-3 (0.7799), Losses: Alabama, South Carolina, LSU
- Michigan State: 10-3 (0.7755), Losses: Notre Dame, Nebraska, Wisconsin (Big Ten Championship)
- Oregon: 9-3 (0.7751), Losses: LSU, Stanford, USC
- Virginia Tech: 10-2 (0.7708), Losses: Wake Forest, Georgia Tech
- Stanford: 10-3 (0.7680), Losses: USC, Notre Dame, Arizona State (PAC-12 Championship)
- TCU: 10-2 (0.7589), Losses: Baylor, Boise State
- FIU: 11-1 (0.7584), Losses: UCF
- Wisconsin: 10-3 (0.7548), Losses: Nebraska, Michigan State, Illinios


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