The 2010 Goal Line Offense: Interesting Trends
I decided to take a closer look at the trends of the 2010 Oklahoma Sooners' goal line offense today. Kevin Wilson received a bit of criticism last year about his playcalling, and I think that dates back as far as the goal line failures against the Florida Gators in the 2008 BCS National Championship Game.
The question I decided to test was: Was there any relation between goal line success and run vs. pass selection in the 2010 Sooner offense?
Overall
By my count, the Sooners took 47 trips inside the opponent's 10 yard line last year. They snapped the ball in non-field goal situations in that 10-yard space 109 times for a total of 244 points. This breaks down to 2.3 downs per trip, 2.24 points per snap, and 5.2 points per trip.
Not counting the one trip that ended with the end of the football game, they failed to score on 7 of those trips (15.2%) and failed to score a touchdown (no scoring, or a field goal) on 14 trips (30.4%).
Overall, the Sooner playcallers dialed up run plays 64% of the time.
Variations
On the drives that ended in a touchdown, Oklahoma ran the ball at exactly the same rate as the overall rate: 64%. Therefore, the "unsuccessful drives" involved similar playcalling rates.
Change In Style?
In fact, it looks like towards the end of the season, Kevin Wilson attempted to mix up the goal line playcalling more, and the result was an increased rate of goal line failures. This change in philosophy seemed to occur around the Texas A&M game. Over the first 24 drives of the season that got inside the opponent's 10-yard line, only 3 of those could be considered "failures" - approximately 3 times less than the overall failure rate for the season. On those 24 trips, the offense ran the ball at a higher rate: 71%.
Over the last 23 trips inside the 10-yard line, 11 times the offense failed to score a touchdown (47.8%). On those particular trips, the offense ran the ball just 57% of the time.
71% of the time (10/14) that the offense simply lined up and pounded the ball - running it on every down - they scored a touchdown.
Summary
I have to say that this isn't what I was expecting to find. Normally I'm first in line to complain when the offense just lines up to run the ball at the goal line and doesn't mix it up.
I think we can all agree that not scoring a touchdown 30% of the time you get inside the 10-yard line is a bad thing, and something that is not the mark of a championship team.
What do you guys think?
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Here Ya Go:
Utah State (86th): 85.5% scoring in RZ
Florida State (19th) 75.0% scoring in RZ
Air Force (85th): 85.1% scoring in RZ
Cincinnati (52nd): 80.4% scoring in RZ
Texas (44th): 80.0% scoring in RZ
Iowa State (44th): 80.0% scoring in RZ
Missouri (2nd): 57.4% scoring in RZ
Colorado (68th): 83.3% scoring in RZ
-Notable drop off in goal line scoring for OU begins-
Texas A&M (4th): 64.6% scoring in RZ
Texas Tech (40th): 79.3% scoring in RZ
Baylor (79th): 84.5% scoring in RZ
Oklahoma State (34th): 78.7% scoring in RZ
Nebraska (76th): 84.2% scoring in RZ
Connecticut (66th): 82.9% scoring in RZ
Avg in 1st half: opponent rank – 50th, percent – 78.3%
Avg in 2nd half: opponent rank – 50th, percent – 79.0%
Answer: not much difference before the slump as to during the slump
"Coach Gundy, why was Oklahoma able to march right down the field against you?" --Erin Andrews
by dishingoutdimes on Aug 16, 2011 7:22 PM CDT up reply actions
What site did you get the rankings from?
Have you tried looking at opponents scoring, passing, and rushing defense and averaging each to maybe get a better look? might give more insight at each game based upon the strengths and weaknesses of each opponents defense.
"Let’s hang half-a-hundred on ‘em."
-Barry Switzer
by OUPest on Aug 17, 2011 4:12 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
cfbstats.com
They provide a lot of national rankings.
"Coach Gundy, why was Oklahoma able to march right down the field against you?" --Erin Andrews
by dishingoutdimes on Aug 17, 2011 6:19 AM CDT up reply actions
It's not just running vs throwing
It’s keeping a defense on it’s heels and off balance. Kevin Wilson had a maddening habit of running up the middle or off left tackle over and over and over when everyone knew it was coming. He did that against Florda when they and everyone watching knew that was what they were going to do. He did the same thing against A&M last year. In those situations he could be utterly predictable. It would make you start to wonder what ever happened to the play-action pass.
by leatherneck1061 on Aug 16, 2011 6:38 PM CDT reply actions
Kevin Wilson had a maddening habit of running up the middle or off left tackle over and over and over when everyone knew it was coming.
I agree. Hard to make that come out with basic statistics though. Still, a little crazy to me that our highest success rates came when we were running the ball more heavily.
"Coach Gundy, why was Oklahoma able to march right down the field against you?" --Erin Andrews
by dishingoutdimes on Aug 16, 2011 7:27 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm ready to see what Heupel's got..
In fact, during the Fiesta Bowl I think Josh Heupel made a conscious effort to not call that stupid bubble screen that Wilson called something like 10 times a game. I know Broyles is great in open space but seeing that play over and over during the course of the regular season I couldn’t help but think that maybe they would fake the screen and go deep. To my recollection I think I only seen them do that once, and that was years ago. It’s like Heupel was deliberately putting his stamp on the offensive gameplan. Hopefully, with guys like Stills and Miller, we’ll see more downfield passing (that all hinges on the run game, though).
I wish I had some stats on bubble screens specifically
It would be interesting to see the average yardage they got on those types of plays, especially by position on the field, and by the intended receiver.
"Coach Gundy, why was Oklahoma able to march right down the field against you?" --Erin Andrews
by dishingoutdimes on Aug 16, 2011 10:16 PM CDT up reply actions
If they want to score on FSU, I think they better throw and hope they have someone very, very, very tall to pluck it out of the air.
Because 5'8" Greg Reid is gonna jump up and take it away?
"You see we got another championship banner up? It’s not a South Division one, either." Bob Stoops
Crimson and Cream Machine - There's only one Oklahoma!
Listen to Sooner Nation, the #1 podcast for OU fans
by Jordan Esco on Aug 16, 2011 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
lol Greg Reid
"Coach Gundy, why was Oklahoma able to march right down the field against you?" --Erin Andrews
by dishingoutdimes on Aug 16, 2011 7:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Exactly.
Our D front 7 is very big, very quick, and very deep, particularly on the line. It will be very hard for any team to convert short yardage or goalline situations.
Our LBs who would be playing that are all 6’3" – 6’4" bout the shortest you might see is 6’1". We do have several corners between 6’2" and 6’4", but if Reid is in the game your best bet is to throw high over his head and have someone pluck it out of the air. Those short guys can leap pretty good and they get to practice against receivers on our squad who are between 6’3" and 6’6". We have a couple of those 6’6" WRs.
OUs best bet is to throw high. As a Nole fan, I prefer to see y’all try to run it in.
Just to clear up misconceptions about G5 (Reid)
A lot of people talk about him. Heck, one of the ESPN guys claimed he’s a darkhorse for Heisman this year. Right. When is the last time a CB won the Heisman?
He gets a lot of attention because he’s like a human highlight reel with big hits, kick returns, and forced turnovers, both INTs and forced fumbles. He can also give up big plays by trying to lay a big hit and using sloppy tackling form or by trying to jump a route and missing. He sees plenty of action come his way because he’s about the fourth best cover corner on the team. The two on the other side (Rhodes and Harris) are so good that teams don’t throw their way much. Our 3rd best cover corner (Joyner) got moved to safety. Coaches feel that G5 has to be on the field b/c he’s a vocal emotional leader and he does have that big play ability. Our DBs say Harris is the best corner and anyone who follows FSU would take Rhodes over Reid. Last year Rhodes was the conference defensive rookie of the year and made all-ACC as a CB. G5 was merely honorable mention.made it as a kick returner. I am serious when I say, throwing at Reid is one of your best options.
FWIW, here is G5: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75TeKIyQYlI
Not to discount your front four
Because I do honestly think it will cause OU some problems, but at the same time it’s not like Landry Jones is sitting back there for a five or seven count looking for receivers to get open. This is a quick strike offense and not just in the sense of the tempo, but in also in how quickly their routes develop and he gets rid of the ball.
So while I’m certainly not saying you all won’t get to him or get pressure at times, the quickness with which he gets rid of the ball will definitely help negate some of that pressure. Plus from what I’ve read, you play a very aggressive style of defense so I’m also quite sure our new offensive coordinator will a couple misdirection plays (among other things) up his sleeve to help exploit that aggressiveness.
"You see we got another championship banner up? It’s not a South Division one, either." Bob Stoops
Crimson and Cream Machine - There's only one Oklahoma!
Listen to Sooner Nation, the #1 podcast for OU fans
I understand and agree.
I’ve said that we might as well have the DL play run on neutral downs to conserve energy b/c Landry throws so quickly. On 3rd and long, then they can pin their ears back. Our DL has been consistently getting to the QB within about 3 secs during practices and scrimmages and that is going against our 1st team OL. Jimbo has been talking about our 275 lb. DEs have the speed and athleticism to play LB. I think it is just coach speak but a couple to have 4.5 – 4.6 speed. This year we have 8 guys we can rotate at DT whereas last year we only had about 3. There isn’t much diff. between 1st team and 4th team except older guys versus younger ones. I think only 1 of the 8 would be a true freshman (Timmy Jernigan), and I include him b/c he appears to be shredding our OL in practice. FSU led the nation in sacks last year, only lost 1 man to graduation, and with added size, improved speed, and depth, the Nole DL looks to be insanely good. There is a reason our DL ranks No. 1 in the country link. We still don’t even have any seniors on the DL depth chart no matter how deep you go.
To give you a feel for the quality of depth, one of our 300+ DT’s has 4.9 speed, 5.04 shuttle, played his senior year in LB in HS.
What Stample did at the ESPN combine, however, might become stuff of legend. He benched 185 lbs 32 times. The next best competitor did it 29 times, and none of the other 200 competitors bested 25 reps. Stample ran a 4.90 laser timed 40-yard dash time, which was better than 125 other combine entrants, including many skill position players. His 30" vert is also really good for a 300+ lb man. But it is that 3-cone drill time that is so jaw dropping. 7.65 seconds at 299 lbs. 16 players went through that test of speed, agility, and change of direction between 7.63 and 7.68 seconds. Two WRs, 6 defensive backs, 3 running backs, two quarterbacks, 2 linebackers, and one man over 225 lbs (Stample). That’s insane.This kid will not break into the 4-deep at either DT spot, will have to take a RS this year, and will have to fight for PT next year because we don’t lose anyone to graduation. The grain of salt is that when he played LB he was 280-285 lbs and was 299 at the combine. Now he is probably between 302 and 305 lbs. The two points I am making are that our bigguns are not sloths and we now have quality depth.
I would much rather have OU run the ball than have Landry throwing quick passes. This will be the best DL Ou faces all year and possibly the best overall D even if you make it to the MNC. Our O has ended the season ranked in the top 10 (adjusted for SOS) each of the past two seasons, only lost 3 starters from last year, and our D has been giving the O all sorts of fits from Spring camp through present. Yes, one of the guys we lost was Ponder who was taken 13th overall in the NFL draft, but he is replaced by EJ Manuel who was the No. 1 rated dual-threat QB in the country coming out of HS. EJ has significant game experience due to Ponder’s injuries, was the Gator Bowl MVP as a freshman, and has been voted preseason 1st team all-conference by he coaches—many of whom have seen him in action. The grain of salt here is that in he has thrown 6 TDs and 10 INTs in his career (6 INTs from his fresh. yr.), some question his decision making and recognition of defenses, and fear he might turn the ball over. I don’t think anyone expects him to turn into Jacory Harris of the former football program known as the ‘Canes. Now we call them ’Da Who?’ Last year most of EJ’s reps came against VT in the ACCCG, which he started, and in the Chick-Fil-A bowl against USCe, which he took over in the 1st qtr. He completed 70% of his passes and had a 153.3 QB rating. He isn’t a 1st rd draft choice yet, but this is the first year he has had a spring camp (due to past injuries) and most think he’ll be alright. Obviously the league’s coaches think so and Jimbo devotes a lot of time to developing QBs. I didn’t mean to get off on our O, just to say that the D has been making it look bad, which hasn’t happened in past years.
As far as the defensive backfield goes, last year 3 of our 4 CBs saw their first action against OU and were trying to play zone heavy Stoops schemes in contrast to man heavy schemes they played under Bowden/Andrews. Of the 2-deep at CB, Reid was a soph., Rhodes was a fresh., Joyner who backed up Reid was a fresh., and Harris who played nickel and backed up Rhodes was JUCO transfer who only had a fall camp due to grades. The OU game was the 1st game they played together (unless you count Samford). A true recipe for disaster and we all saw what happened.
The unit played much better as the season went on, as they learned Stoops’s schemes, and as he was able to install more. You’re familiar with Reid. Rhodes made 2nd-team all-conference as a fresh. and was named conference defensive rookie of the year. (Contrast to Reid who only made all-conference honorable mention as a soph.) Joyner was the USA today defensive player of the yr. coming out of HS, added about 15-20 lbs of good weight and has moved back to his natural position at safety and locked down the starting job. Bearing in mind that the ACC is not filled with passing attacks of OSUs, aTms, UTs, and TTechs and that Harris was a backup/nickel back, he put up these numbers:
* 4 INTs (tied with Rhodes for most in ’10),
* 2 FF
* 5 BU,
* 9 PD,
* 33 Solo Tackles,
* 8 Assisted Tackles,
That’s ridiculous for someone who isn’t a starter.
.
Here is a 14-sec. sample of Harris’s work: link
It is an amazing one-handed pick. There is a reason the rest of our DBs say he is the best CB on the team and Mark Stoops refers to him as a starter even though he is a backup. There is a battle for the run-stop SS between the two guys who started at saefty last year-Juniors Nick Moody and Terrence Parks. I prefer Moody b/c he is a harder hitter, better run-stopper, and tends to keep the play in front of him when in coverage. Last year, Parks broke his coverage early several times—for example, leaving his man when the QB scrambles b4 the QB crosses the LOS—leaving his man or zone wide open down the field for big plays and TDs. As a safety in a Stoops D, he should never let a guy get behind him IMO. Both had their share of mistakes in their first year under Stoops’s system and which gets the nod will likely depend upon which picks up their mental game, plays their assignment, and is more disciplined. Right now, Stoops has labelled them co-starters rather than 1-2. The final note about safeties is that last year all of our backups were freshmen, whereas this year they are juniors and sophs. (not to mention freshmen like 5* Karlos Williams and Tyler Hunter who was downgraded to 4* by ESPN due to a back injury his junior year that threatened his career. Consensus was that Karlos was the No. 1 or 2 HS safety in the country last year.) There is now a lot more depth and experience in the DB, the guys have had a season to play together and learn Stoops’s D, and everyone is back.
The talent level on the Nole defense is as good as the elite Ds in CFB. Whether the Nole D will play as well as those others depends on how well they listen to Stoops and how disciplined they are. All of the reports on our D are only full of praise; not so when Jimbo talks about the O (which might have something to do with how well the D is playing).
As far as playing aggressively goes, traditionally under Bowden/Andrews. Under Stoops it is not by design, just old habits that he needs to break them of. Stoops didn’t blitz much last year and didn’t need to. He would prefer coverage sacks. I don’t think Mark is that much different than Bob when it comes to teaching assignments, containment, and so forth. In year 2, I’m not sure what to expect. Stoops took our D from the 107th spot to the 41st spot in year 1. Pretty good considering the number of freshman and new schemes. We’ll see whether he can take it to the next level.
I haven’t said our D is going to make your O look ugly and I don’t expect that. You guys put up plenty of points on everyone you play. I hope our guys are not sucking wind like they were last year. Our 1st 4 or 5 games are against teams that run this hurry up, fast-snap no huddle offense. Without a doubt, OU runs it better than any of them. I would think that Stoops is preparing and conditioning our guys for that esp. since OU is not the only team who will run like that. We’ll have to wait and see what happens on the field but I do not expect this D to vaguely resemble the one you saw a year ago. All things considered, Reid and the SS/run-stop safety are, comparatively speaking, the weakest spots on the D. If you can attack and exploit those positions, you are doing just what you should.
You will have to pass
I can guarantee you won’t be running the ball on FSU this season.

The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers.....Thomas Jefferson
"My choice early in life was either to be a piano player in a whorehouse or a politician. And to tell the truth, there's hardly any difference." - President Harry S. Truman
by DocHoliday2 on Aug 19, 2011 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions
You mean...
Someone like 6’4" James Hanna? or 6’4" Dejuan Miller? or 6’4" Austin Haywood? Or 6’6" Max Stevenson?
Or how about when we end up throwing the ball to our 6’6" left tackle or 6"4" left guard on some sort of awesome trick play?
So is the 10 of 14 trips "pounding it in" exclusive to the last half of the season? or is it the entire season?
And are you counting a trip as all for snaps? Because I personally think the more maddening stat is that 3 times against A&M, we used all 12 snaps…correct? ( or was I drunk? I did have to open up & make it go away….) Because 12 snaps to get it once is a DISMAL failure period. Why didnt the cramp master have a cramp in those 12 snaps? Now there is a trend……
No those were spread over the entire season
It was just an observation about what happened when we never passed the ball in the 10 yard line.
The A&M game is probably our most abysmal failure in this regard.
- On our third possession, we snapped the ball 6 times inside the 10 yard line. Five of those were rushes, including 3 within the 2-yard line. We got stopped at the 1.
- On our first possession of the 2nd half we scored a rushing touchdown, but we had to take four snaps to get it, 2 rushes, 2 passes.
- On our third possession of the 2nd half we scored a passing touchdown, with 2 pass attempts from within the 10.
- With about five minutes left in the game, we ran the ball 3 times and passed it once inside the 10, eventually getting stopped on a run on 4th and goal at the 1.
- An almost identical situation played out 3:30 later with about a minute and change left in the game. 3 runs and a pass from within the 10, getting stuffed on 4th and goal from the 2.
Converting on 2 of those 3 failures would have at least put the game into overtime.
We had 20 snaps inside the 10 in that game, but only came away with 14 points.
"Coach Gundy, why was Oklahoma able to march right down the field against you?" --Erin Andrews
by dishingoutdimes on Aug 16, 2011 8:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Absolute failure. I think this game makes the goalline failures seem m ore prevalent.
Especially in a loss….. And I guarantee not one of those 20 snaps inside the 10 did the crampmaster take a knee….
Anyone else think...
that pic of Wilson looks a little like Bob from That 70s Show? Put an afro on him and it looks like the same guy.
All this talk about pounding it in
Makes me wonder if we’re still talking about football.
New Orleans, here we come.
by KratosWasASooner on Aug 16, 2011 9:20 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
There is a simpler way to look at this
1. OU did not run the ball well last year period.
2. They did better later in the year, as you would expect. Both offense and defense improved after the aTm game.

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