The Real Reason For OU/A&M Threats to leave the Big 12

One lingering question from last week is Oklahoma’s threat to leave the Big 12 and join the SEC a real threat?  Is leaving the conference really a proportionally measured response to the Longhorn Network’s high school game programming? Personally, I have some ideas about all this and I’d like to share a few.  Now I will point out this is mostly editorial speculation.  I don’t know the future or all the minds in play, but I think I can see the chess moves and I’d like to share them with ya’ll.

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Let’s start off with a look back to last year.  6 teams from the Big 12 planned to leave for the Pac-10 to form the first "Super-Conference" of 16 teams.  It fell apart for various reasons, but the key part that came out was that Texas, Oklahoma, and A&M would get paid if they stayed in the Big 12 as they could keep their "3rd Tier Rights" which they wouldn’t be allowed to do in the Pac-10 (even though UT fans claim differently, USC fans will confirm this).  Those 3rd Tier Rights were/are worth a lot of money, in fact ESPN quickly signed a mega deal with UT to start the Longhorn Network.  It was assumed, OU’s deal and A&M’s deal as well as the rest of the Big 12’s deals were just a matter of time.

ESPN paid a lot for the LHN…..in fact they over paid in my opinion (again, UT fans will say it’s because they are the biggest and the bestest EVAR, and that people in Florida, New York, Cali, etc are just dying to watch UT’s Band Practice on TV).  While $15 million a year is a lot, and about $7-8 million a year too much…that is chump change as what it would cost ESPN to negotiate with Super-Conferences.

Super-Conferences would mean more TV rights tied up into fewer conferences.  Less supply means higher costs for programming when ESPN/Fox/CBS are all biding for the same programming.  This is why ESPN over paid for the LHN.  With UT fat, paid, and happy, the Super-Conference idea cooled off.  In fact I said it was an idea that had died.

But…what about OU and A&M?  Where are their TV deals?  A&M quickly abandoned their plans for a network, and joined the 7 dwarves of the conference in working for a Big 12 Network.  OU’s deal hasn’t been announced, beyond "we are looking at all our options".  This is where my speculation comes into play:  I don’t think the Big 12 Network nor the OU Network was getting a good reception and not to the level that was expect just a year ago.

So if you have some 3rd Tier TV rights, and you aren’t getting the money and interest you thought you would….how would you get folks to negotiate and pony up money for your networks?  Answer: Do what UT did and threaten to start the Super-Conference race again by threatening to join the SEC.  If ESPN wanted to keep the Super-Conference from happening so bad last year that they over paid UT for their rights, then they should do the same with OU and A&M for their rights.

Now this maybe a good time to point out, that A&M truly wants out of the Big 12, and out of the shadow of their big brother.  They have a large alumni base, a good history, a large local TV market, and in many ways would be more valuable to the SEC then they are to the Big 12, and I think it would be better for them to be in a different conference from UT.  OU on the other hand has prospered more than any other program in the Big 12, is now in the geographic center of the conference (which is great for the fans), and really have little reason to leave the Big 12….besides money and exposure.

There a few options that can happen now.  1) OU and A&M plus the 7 dwarves get their own channel and ESPN bids it up to keep everyone happy.  2) UT and ESPN give up some control of The Longhorn Network and it becomes the Big 12 Network, or ESPN uses it as local type network such as the Fox Sports Regional outlets. 3) OU and A&M actually leave for the SEC 4) or lastly nothing happens, and OU and A&M bow their heads, tuck their tails and live on in the shadow of UT and the LHN.

Personally I think this is/was the goal of last week’s saber rattling, and what I think will happen: The Longhorn Network will morph into the Big 12 Network.  That will allow for more cable distribution and cable interest than one school alone, making the channel more financially viable and a broader source of programming to the channel.   It would also give political cover to UT that they are all for the good of the Conference.  If they still get their same money (and I assume they would), the only thing they lose is the bragging right of saying "We are so great we have our own channel" which isn’t something they will want to brag about if it fails, and so far, it’s not getting off to a good start.

The Longhorn Network becoming the Big 12 Network is a winner all around.  If money is split on population or TV ratings, then OU, A&M, Missouri and Kansas would get paid and UT can be more justified getting their greater lions share (I would assume they keep 100% of their money from their contract).  UT can avoid the heat of the High School football games violations, get to look magnanimous to the rest of the conference, and a benevolent big brother.  ESPN gets to not only avoid the Super-Conferences yet AGAIN, but they also don’t have to competitively negotiate for a Big 12 Network against Fox or CBS, as they will be using their already existing channel as the basis for the Network.

Lastly if the Big 12 network is set up similar to the Big 10 network and is similarly successful, then all the conference schools can be looking forward to some good paydays.  

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