Big XII's Biggest Surprise Team?
by OnlyOneOU on Jul 22, 2011 3:25 PM CDT
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PrintWith the elimination of a conference championship game, the chances for a new Big XII champion have slightly gone up. Of course the natural contenders and power house teams of the Big XII have traditionally been from the former south division, but has the door opened for a team to come in and surprise everyone? We all know that Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Texas (lightly leaning on Texas having a shot at the title this year) all have a shot to bring home the hardware.
Last season, Oklahoma State was picked to finish 5th in the conference and came out with a share of the Big XII south, which still warrants no need for a ring. So, outside of these five (or four if you consider UT a long shot) teams, which school has the potential to be a sleeping giant?
Who is your Cinderella team from the Big XII for the 2011 season?
Kansas State loses a good portion of their OL along with RB Daniel Thomas, who is hard for anyone to replace in my opinion after the way he carried the Wildcats on his shoulders week in and week out. But, K-State will be looking to Collin Klein to lead the way under center after getting good experience last season along with Bryce Brown to get a majority of the carries out of the backfield. On the defensive side of things, David Garrett is proving to be a force to reckon with at CB. Don't forget about LB Arthur Brown either who has been selected to several award watch lists.
Texas Tech retains all five starting offensive linemen. However, they lose their top two receivers, two senior QBs, along with their star RB in Byron Batch. Eric Stephens will be depended upon heavily to lead the way in Tuberville's "balanced attack" offense at Tech. On defense, the Red Raiders have a ton of young talent who got experience far before they were ready. But, will this young defense be able to keep up in the Big XII and what will the offense look like as a unit?
Baylor was a great story of the 2010 season with Robert Griffin III leading the way on offense and giving Bear fans a glimpse of greatness. The Bears return the core of their team from last season. While Baylor has proven they have the offense to move the ball up and down the field, the defense isn't able to stop anyone. They must rely on a shootout style of play and hope they come out on top in the end. Phil Bennett takes on the challenge of shoring up the defense to compete for a title in the Big XII for the 2011 season.
Iowa State has a solid group of linebackers but lacks in the skill positions. Not to mention, the Cyclones have yet to name a QB to replace Austen Arnaud. The way things are shaping up for Iowa State, they might be on par with Kansas as the longest shot to win the Big XII.
Kansas need I say more? The Jayhawks will have a little improvement and may be able to pull themselves out of the basement with Jordan Webb running the show at QB. But at this point, anything would be an improvement from a 3-9 record with five of those losses being by more than 20 points.
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Baylor
always seems to be the projected “surprise” team. IN 2010 they had a full year of Griffin and they still were sucky. In 2011 the only surprise will be how bad they are. 3-4 wins I think.
Are you talking 3-4 conference wins or total wins
Their OOC games include Stephen F Austin and Rice – two very winable games. On top of that I think they get Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, and K-State as wins.
by OnlyOneOU on Jul 22, 2011 4:32 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
total
I could see maybe 5. I do not have Tech as a win, and think they’re about 50-50 on ISU, KU, KSU. So 2 OOC’s and about 2 Big 12 wins = about 4 wins.
If Baylor doesn't become bowl eligible
I think it will be a disappointing season. I’m not saying I expect them to be a top 25 team but a new DC should help them improve on defense and not let a team like Tech run them up and down time and time again.
by OnlyOneOU on Jul 22, 2011 6:52 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
You must be crazy!
Texas with a shot at the Big XII title? Do you think that A&M, OU, and OSU’s teams are all going to quit school or something? I’d put Tech and KSU ahead of Texas in the standings in 2011.
I am undecided on UT completely
They come in with the most unanswered questions but they also have more talent than the bottom 5. If the defense isn’t on the field as much as they were last year they can finish with a winning record.
by OnlyOneOU on Jul 22, 2011 6:00 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
it's really hard to gauge
if they go back to kind of a spread, like (you’d assume) they were recruiting for up until the big switch to feature power running… you think maybe they regress towards 8 or 9 wins. but it’s so hard to know… so many moving parts, with new kids and new coaches. my gut says they’re 5th in the conference, although i know that’s pretty “safe.”
They have a suspect OL, no running game to speak of, and a QB who in all likelihood will not even be the starter by the end of the season. Hell, GG may not even be their QB starting game 1. Last year Texas, allegedly, had more talent than all but 3-5 teams in the entire country and they still could not finish with a winning record. Now they’ve brought in new coaches to try to address all of their issues and their fan base seems to think that’s going to solve all of their problems. There may be some merit to the argument that any OC is better than Greg Davis but can that really improve them from 5-7 to a chance at the Big XII title? To me, it’s unthinkable. In my mind the realistic best finish for Texas is around 8-4, and 6-7 wins is more likely. They might vie for the conference title in 2012 (if the Big XII conference even exists by then) but I just don’t see them overcoming their many, many challenges in 2011.
I think that the sooner Texas benches Gilbert
The sooner they head in the right direction
by King Sam Rules! on Jul 23, 2011 11:33 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I'll take K-State just cause the other options are awful
I think Dan Snyder will be able to handle their losses. Theyre only my pick cause I have no faith in the talent of any other team besides Tech, and I’m never gonna give the nod to Dummerville
by King Sam Rules! on Jul 22, 2011 4:56 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
K St. is good.
I think their offense will be just as good. KU will surprise. Gill needed one transition year and they should be on the rise.
my rindercella team is OSU. Sure they will be picked 2 or 3 in the league…but having them not choke, and actually do that…for me is quite the surprise, plus of all the teams in the league they are the one I think has the best chance of beating OU this year (as I write this in July)
maybe this is stupid/naive
but i’m having a hard time being afraid of spread teams with the LB/S/CB group we can run out there. if they go into that 50 set, with (say) Hammer/Walker/Alexander down, then TJ, Nelson,Wort, Lewis with Fleming, Colvin, Harris, Hurst behind… I feel like we can dare teams to run. And whatever you may think about our DTs, I can’t see a team without an elite RB/OL scoring with our offense.
They have no defense
OU will score on every possession. They lose the anchors of the LBs and DL, and CB Andrew McGhee is gone. I say no way they win 10 games.
by soonercowboy14 on Jul 22, 2011 11:46 PM CDT up reply actions
If you want odds then go with Baylor or KU..
however in a 9 game league tourney a couple of factors jump at you.
The teams Coaching staffs ability to game plan and manage as they push thru the season. Just being able to deal with 4 or 5 games in row where the defense versus offense is out of bounds. I.e. your scheme or skill sets don’t match up very well. Example Techs former Zone blocking scheme against the Horns defensive line push.
Home field advantage and travel woes. Look the travelling team misses 1 or 2 scrimmages no matter what hotel they stay in.
Who or which team gets to keeps his Number 1’s healthy. Chaos theory .. Everyone i s one turned ankle from being a starter. The smaller programs typically have fewer options at getting a serviceable Left Tackle on the field without disrupting the offensive scheme.
The unexpected maturity or lack there of a key senior . Scandal, eligibility or distraction look if your rush defensive end can’t go to class (see Mckinner Dixon 2009) then you have a hole.. on the other hand when a Dwayne Slay (JuCo guy) man crusher bursts on the scene (8 forced fumbles in one year) or a Mr. Thomas(sp?) the stud running back from last year’s Kstate team all of sudden the deck tilts.
Overall round robin venue means realistically there cant be a Conference champion with any more than 2 losses. Of any stripe or variety. I.e. if the Aggies drop the OOC Arkansas game it could be fatal in November. My take is it will come down to Bedlam to decide it but ATM might surprise.
So the Cinderella not only has to have favorable travel schedule they have to catch the Big boys on low point i.e. beat up and they need the Coaching staff to not lose their minds late in the year. Just lots of variables which negate a nontraditional conference leader from fulfilling the dream.
"do routine things routinely"
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