FanPost

Updated Simulation

So I changed my preseason rankings to be that of the NCAA '12 Football game, mainly because my preseason rankings had teams like Texas lower than they'll probably be (they were in the 80s).  These rankings probably aren't the best to use, but they're the only rankings I know of that rank all FBS teams, and they seem better than the ones I had.

I ran through the simulation again and obtained new results.  Again, the results are after the jump.

Chance of Going Undefeated:

  1. Virginia Tech (15.35%)
  2. Stanford (15.06%)
  3. Boise State (15.06%)
  4. UCF (14.81%)
  5. Hawaii (10.70%)
  6. Ohio State (10.26%)
  7. TCU (9.83%)
  8. Alabama (8.90%)
  9. Oklahoma (7.58%)
  10. Florida State (5.87%)
  11. Oregon (5.68%)
  12. Northern Illinois (5.00%)
  13. Wisconsin (4.22%)
  14. South Carolina (3.53%)
  15. West Virginia (3.54%)
  16. South Carolina (3.53%)
  17. NC State (3.45%)
  18. LSU (3.00%)
  19. Ohio (2.81%)
  20. Texas A&M (2.45%)
  21. Utah (2.38%)
  22. Houston (2.27%)
  23. Michigan State (1.31%)
  24. Nebraska (1.20%)
  25. Connecticut (1.17%)

Strength of Schedule:

  1. Colorado
  2. Kansas
  3. Iowa State
  4. LSU
  5. Oklahoma
  6. Auburn
  7. Texas A&M
  8. Boston College
  9. South Carolina
  10. Oklahoma State
  11. Missouri
  12. Arkansas
  13. USC
  14. Clemson
  15. Baylor
  16. Notre Dame
  17. Nebraska
  18. Kansas State
  19. Vanderbilt
  20. Mississippi
  21. Washington
  22. Texas
  23. Oregon State
  24. Arizona
  25. Texas Tech

Final Rank (Losses included):

  1. Oklahoma (11-1) --- Oklahoma State
  2. Nebraska (11-1) --- Wisconsin
  3. Alabama (11-1) --- LSU
  4. Florida State (11-1) --- Oklahoma
  5. Stanford (11-1) --- Oregon
  6. Utah (11-1) --- USC
  7. Auburn (10-2) --- South Carolina, Alabama
  8. South Carolina (10-2) --- Mississippi State, Arkansas
  9. Oklahoma State (10-2) --- Kansas State, Iowa State
  10. Virginia Tech (11-1) --- Georgia Tech
  11. Wisconsin (10-2) --- Ohio State, Penn State
  12. Ohio State (10-2) --- Nebraska, Michigan
  13. UCF (11-1) --- SMU
  14. Hawaii (12-1) --- UNLV
  15. Boise State (10-2) --- Georgia, TCU
  16. Texas A&M (9-3) --- Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Oklahoma
  17. Missouri (9-3) --- Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
  18. Arkansas (9-3) --- Troy, Alabama, Auburn
  19. Northern Illinois (11-1) --- Wisconsin
  20. Georgia (9-3) --- South Carolina, Mississippi State, Auburn
  21. Connecticut (10-2) --- Vanderbilt, Cincinnati
  22. TCU (10-2) --- Air Force, SMU
  23. Penn State (9-3) --- Alabama, Nebraska, Ohio State
  24. North Carolina (9-3) --- Georgia Tech, Clemson, Virginia Tech
  25. LSU (8-4) --- Oregon, West Virginia, Auburn, Arkansas

What I found especially interesting in this simulation was Oklahoma State choking on two games that they were supposed to win pretty handily.  The simulation gave Oklahoma State a 90% chance of beating Kansas State and an 85% chance of beating Iowa State.  (For the record, it also gave Oklahoma State a 42% chance of beating Oklahoma).

Arkansas losing to Troy was also kind of interesting, considering they supposedly had a 92% chance of beating them.

And for those interested, Texas almost made the cut, coming in at 29 with an 8-4 record.

FanPost are for the voice of the fan and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Crimson and Cream Machine administrators.

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