Does OU Control It's Own Destiny for the BCS National Championship Game?

by Redhawk on Oct 30, 2011 12:45 PM CDT

Does OU suddenly control its own destiny again? Was one big win on the road against the overrated, err...solid and top 10 ranked Kansas State Wildcats on the road enough? Or was the loss of Clemson Tigers on the road the only road block OU needed to fall?

Going into the weekend it was assumed for OU to get back into the hunt for the BCS National Championship game, they would have to have a TON of help. OU needed to win out of course. The Sooners also need Oklahoma State to continue to win out until they meet up in Bedlam.

But it was also assumed OU would need help from other sources. OU would need Clemson to lose. CHECK! They would need Stanford to lose. OH SO CLOSE. They would need Boise State to lose. They might need Oregon to lose as well, especially if Oregon is the team that beats Stanford on November 12th.

What a difference one Saturday makes.

via presscoverage.us

The USA Today/Coaches Poll is out and we have in order: LSU, Alabama, Stanford, Oklahoma State, Boise. No. 6 is Oregon followed by Oklahoma at #7, followed by Arkansas at 8

The Coaches Poll is only one poll in the BCS mix another is the computers, which still loves the Big 12 one we have out is Sagarin's ratings and it has: 1. Oklahoma St. 2. Alabama 3. LSU 4. Arkansas 5. Oklahoma 6. Boise St. 7. Kansas St. 8. Stanford

At the time I'm writing this article we are several hours from the BCS officially coming out, but BCS guru Jerry Palm has his prediction out and he's think the BCS will look like this: LSU, Alabama, Okla St, Stanford, Boise, OU, Oregon, Arkansas

If OU has already jumped a one loss Oregon whose only loss was to #1 LSU, it goes a long way to understand that the computers value OU's nonconference and the Big 12 strength of schedule over the PAC-12's.

As you look at the teams in front of OU the winner of the LSU-Alabama game is looking like a lock for one half of the BCS National Championship game, but the winner will have the SEC championship game, and LSU will still have Arkansas to play. The LSU-Alabama game is a loss to at least one school in front of OU. IF OU beats OSU, that's 2 in front of OU that goes down.

That puts OU at #3 in the BCS if they win out...and #3 is of course a trip to the Fiesta Bowl, and not to New Orleans......but according the computers, if OSU wins out, and I don't see anyone on the Cowboys remaining games that can trip them up, and OU beats them in Stillwater on December 5th, it looks like OU could possibly jump an undefeated Stanford and would most certainly jump Boise State.

Which means.....OU might be in control of their destiny once again. Granted, it would be nice for Stanford to lose preferably in the PAC championship game to what appears to be Arizona State.

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Comments

Unfortunately, I think OU still needs some help

If OU wins out, and there aren’t any upset losses from teams currently ranked ahead of OU, then my projections would have:

1. LSU/Alabama winner
2. Stanford
3. Oklahoma

by ever1809 on Oct 30, 2011 3:22 PM CDT reply actions

agreed

I’ve seen Stanford in action. They can take on Oregon (@the Farm) and will have home advantage for the Pac-12 championship game against ASU. They have a better chance of going undefeated than OU winning out the rest of this season.

by ou_adoption on Oct 30, 2011 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions

First of all

we need Oregon to beat Stanford. I think that game’s at Stanford. USC could’ve really helped us out last night. More than that, however, I’m not even sure that we would jump the loser of the LSU/Alabama game. If this is a close game, and let’s say that Bama wins at home something like 17-14, why would we expect LSU to fall past 3 or 4? I’m not even sure they should fall past 2! If Alabama goes on to win the SEC and stays undefeated, and LSU wins out, I’m not sure we jump them even if we also win out. Granted, beating OSU on the road will help a lot but it’ll be undeniable that LSU’s loss is better than ours. There’s a reasonable likelihood that the NC game will be a rematch of this week’s Bama/LSU game, similar to the OU/Nebraska Orange Bowl game back many moons ago.

by chuckb on Oct 30, 2011 3:49 PM CDT reply actions

Nah

No, I don’t think we’ll see a re-match between Alabama and LSU. I don’t think there will be a lot of people in favor of that outside of SEC country.

by SoonerSunDevil on Oct 30, 2011 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions

Whether or not

people will want that sort of matchup is pretty irrelevant. The loser of the game, if they win out, will be ranked extremely high in the polls and will be extremely highly regarded by the computers. That’s all it takes. A 1-loss LSU or Alabama, if the game is fairly close, probably finishes higher than a 1-loss OU team in the BCS polls. If so, it won’t matter one iota that some fans might not want to see an all-SEC NC game.

by chuckb on Oct 31, 2011 9:38 PM CDT up reply actions

Unless it is a blowout

If one or the other catches lightning in a bottle and would win by two/three scores (could happen, right?) then I think that rematch is out the window.

by SCKSChief on Nov 1, 2011 7:56 AM CDT up reply actions

Yep.

You also figure there’s the FSU effect where the loser expends so much (especially with the bye week last weekend) that they turn around and lose a close one to omeone else….

by OU JJ on Nov 1, 2011 7:04 PM CDT up reply actions

IF Oregon beats Stanford

I got a feeling that will put them in the cat-bird seat where OU is concerned.

While OU over the Pokes is a great win, it probably isn’t any better than an Oregon win over Stanford.

Then (assuming all the above is true) Oregon gets to play ASU (a team the already beat once — and pretty easily) in the PAC championship game. That may be enough to put them ahead of a one loss OU team at the end of the year.

HOWEVER

If LSU is sitting at #1 at the end of the year, there is no way Oregon gets a rematch. Bama is another matter.

mjc

by quidveritas on Oct 30, 2011 4:57 PM CDT up reply actions

I agree with almost all of that.

by SoonerSunDevil on Oct 30, 2011 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions

I don't think so

Our overall schedule is more impressive than Oregon’s. Our win over OSU would be more impressive rankings-wise than a win over Stanford, too. (Stanford doesn’t really have much of a home-field advantage – a stadium of 50,000 that often doesn’t sell out.)

by ClarkusKentus on Oct 30, 2011 5:07 PM CDT up reply actions

Compared to

a stadium of 60,000+ that sometimes has up to 50,000 in attendance?

Rumor has it that Texas is about to sign a huge corporate sponsorship deal for the Longhorn Network. They just have to decide which brand represents them best: Dyson, Eureka or Hoover.

by It'sTheVoice on Oct 31, 2011 10:36 PM CDT up reply actions

And there’s no way an undefeated Boise stays ahead of a one loss OU team if OU wins out. Ain’t happening. The computers will kill Boise and the humans seem to be dropping them slowly but surely.

by SoonerSunDevil on Oct 30, 2011 4:28 PM CDT reply actions

I personally think the computers will put OU with one loss

ahead of Stanford even if Stanford wins out too. I would expect the human/coaches poll to put Stanford ahead of OU though.

The question is in the difference. From what I’m seeing out of the computers, is they like the Big12 way over the PAC.

by Redhawk on Oct 30, 2011 4:46 PM CDT up reply actions

OU will not jump an undefeated Alabama, LSU, Stanford, or Little Oklahoma. OU, however, will jump Boise and Oregon, assuming OU, Boise, and Oregon all win out. OU really, really needs someone to beat Stanford and then OU is almost back in the driver’s seat like they were two weeks ago.

by SoonerSunDevil on Oct 30, 2011 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions

Well, if Oregon wins out

They knock Stanford out of the equation. :)

by ClarkusKentus on Oct 30, 2011 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions

you (and everyone else)

are underestimating how much the computers like the Big 12, and how much they don’t like the Pac12.

It’s quite possible that OU (if they win out) will jump an undefeated Stanford (which would mean Oregon gets a 2nd loss)

by Redhawk on Oct 30, 2011 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions

I think the problem with that is that the humans will make sure Stanford plays ahead of OU. Remember, the computer is only 1/3 of the formula. OU needs Stanford to lose, no other way OU leaps ahead of them.

I completely agree with what you’re saying about the computers, but again, it is only 1/3 of the equation.

by SoonerSunDevil on Oct 30, 2011 6:17 PM CDT up reply actions

Redhawk is wise and his predictions often come to pass

Now I almost want Stanford to run the table. Just to see if you are right (once again).

Personally I think trying to beat out a one loss Oregon is a better scenario (and could easily happen BTW — those two teams are pretty close — if James is 100%.

mjc

by quidveritas on Oct 30, 2011 9:12 PM CDT up reply actions

thank you

but I’m not that accurate. In fact I think I’m about as accurate as throwing spaghetti against a wall.

BUT…after doing some reading, the computers do love the Big 12 and the SEC, but I think Sooner SunDevil is probably correct that the human/coaches poll will have a no loss Stanford ahead of a one loss OU…and that will be enough of an edge to keep Stanford ahead of OU (but it looks like it would be close)

by Redhawk on Oct 30, 2011 9:19 PM CDT up reply actions

Good point about Oregon

USC left a lot of points on the field offensively…Oregon won’t.

OU partially holds their own destiny, in that they need to win out. Take care of that and they need one more bit of help; Oregon over Stanford. Those two things happen and the Sooners will be in New Orleans. Remember, if OU wins out, they will have a win over the #2 team in the BCS and the country in their last game of the season. That would tend to leave a mark on the voters.

by SCKSChief on Oct 31, 2011 7:53 AM CDT up reply actions

Eventually.... LSU will pull a TT

They always do

by OU JJ on Oct 30, 2011 4:35 PM CDT reply actions

No

We controlled our own destiny up until last week. We can put ourselves in a position to capitalize if another team falters, but we don’t control our own destiny. Alabama, LSU, and Oklahoma State control theirs. And Stanford is in better position than we are, as long as they win out.

by ClarkusKentus on Oct 30, 2011 4:40 PM CDT reply actions

Just root for LSU next week and Oregon when they play Stanford.

Assuming we and those other two win out, we’re in the championship game. Voters don’t like rematches. Ala Ohio State-Michigan (or Texas before they utterly fell apart) in 2006, OU-Texas in 08 (granted which wasn’t seriously floated around).

by SoonerDutch on Oct 30, 2011 5:54 PM CDT reply actions