Who's Coming? Who's Going? Conference Realignment Updated Rumors
by Redhawk on Oct 20, 2011 1:16 AM CDT
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via www.wvubaltimorealumni.com
It's been awhile since I have written anything on Conference Realignment mostly because nothing new and concrete has actually happened to affect OU and the Big 12 since the Big 12 added TCU, but the winds they seem to be a blowin' and I figured I'd catch some of you up that don't follow it too closely (or review it for those that do)
IS MISSOURI STAYING OR GOING?
That right now is the big question. It is the question and answer upon which hangs the fate of several schools conference affiliation as well as even the possible survival of a conference.
Last Week acting Big 12 Commissioner Chuck Neinas said after the conference added TCU to the 2012 schedule that the conference had its 10 teams and no one was leaving for next year. This apparently came as a bit of a surprise to the SEC who needs a 14th team and to Missouri as well.
I would assume by that statement that Neinas is planning to hold Missouri to the league for next year, even if they withdraw from the league. The last day for notice is June 30th for the following year. That is to keep last minute defections from messing up the other schools scheduling. The league worked out (or IS working out) to allow Texas A&M out early, mostly as A&M just refused to abide by that deadline. It is questionable if Neinas will be able to hold Missouri to staying in 2012 or not.
The latest and biggest rumor is that Missouri now has the SEC votes to join (supposedly, Alabama switched their vote to yes when they got their wish that Missouri join in the East Division) . It is widely being reported that Mizzou will be announcing any day that they are withdrawing from the Big 12. Then a few days later it is assumed they will accept an invitation to join the SEC as the 14th school.
10 or 12 SCHOOLS IN THE BIG 12?
That's the next question, if Missouri leaves as it's assumed at this point. If Missouri stays all the reports are that the Big 12 will stay with 10 teams. If Missouri leaves...then it's a different question. From reports some schools want 12 teams and some want 10 teams, but the general consensus is that the Big 12 will return to 12 teams if Missouri does leave.
The question of 10 or 12 and who those schools to be added will most likely, be decided by the Big 12's TV partners. That's a nice way of saying, this is all about the money and those writing the checks will get to have the final say.
SO WHO'S JOINING THE BIG 12?
BYU: It was rumored a few weeks ago that BYU to the Big 12 was dead, and the conference was moving on. Two big sticking points came up. 1) BYU wanted more re-broadcast rights then the conference currently gives to member schools. They wanted to re-run sports on their BYU channel. This is owned by the TV networks. UT balked at BYU getting a better TV set up deal then they got! 2) The next sticking point was Sunday sports. BYU doesn't play them, and the TV partners looked at that as limiting their programming choices and inventory availability.
However, the latest rumors is that the Church of Later Day Saints that runs BYU has changed its demands and are back talking to the Big 12 Conference.
Many now assume BYU will be a Big 12 member. They could also join as quickly as next year if Missouri does leave the Conference hanging.
LOUISVILLE: It is assumed that Louisville is next on the Big 12's list. They are state school in Kentucky and a major basketball program. They have a new football stadium that is expandable.
West Virginia: West Virginia brings a top basketball program and a solid football program. They have rabid fan base, and they totally dominate their market. Downside is they are long way from the Big 12 region and their TV market is pretty small. However they are one of the few programs that are on the level of the Big 12 schools currently in football.
CINCINNATI: If BYU doesn't join many speculate and assume the Bearcats would be #12. I'm not sure why besides they are a bridge between Louisville and West Virginia. They were a basketball program, but not so much lately. Their football program plays in a tiny old stadium on campus. While they are in a big TV market, no one in that market cares about the Bearcats.
ARE THERE OTHER POTENTIAL CANDIDATES? A: No..not really, but here's some I've heard:
TULANE: Don't laugh but ESPN actually threw out the Green Wave last week. OK...now you can laugh. They draw less then 10k to the Super-dome. While they are in a new market and an AAU school, they simply aren't Big 12 level in size or following.
HOUSTON: Heard them thrown out a time or two. They would strengthen the Big 12's present in a critical city somewhat. However, many schools are worried about being too Texas-centric. Also UT doesn't want to share turf, and have other schools as their conference "equals" (shocking I know)
BOISE STATE: Nothing serious on Boise. They have issues with academics, size of the Community College. Also it's assumed if the joined the Big 12 they wouldn't be allowed to bring in partial qualifiers and their talent would tank. Then we have a glorified community college with no market and a bad football team.
USF and UCF: This is a pair of schools in Florida that are both in the top 10 largest enrollments in the nation, both are growing fan bases because of it. There has been a lot of internet chatter and support on boards for these two schools to join the Big 12, but I've not heard anything from a major beat reporter on them.
NEW MEXICO: I've still maintained that this would be good local state university to add. They are a top draw in attendance for basketball, and they just redid the PIT. They also rank higher academically then OU does on the AAU listings (which they are not yet a member) as well as USA-Today and Princeton Review Rankings. They are also a rival of Texas Tech. I've even said that compared to Colorado New Mexico isn't that far below CU. BUT....I've never seen their name come up in any serious listing of potential candidates.
HAWAII: Well mostly because I can post pictures like this one, and dream of following my Sooners to the Aloha State:
WHAT IS THE BIG EAST GOING TO DO?
It was rumored that the Big East was looking to expand, and their commissioner even said they wanted to get to 12 teams. But it seems that some of their targets have not jumped to join them specifically Navy and Air Force, which were the key schools for the Big East was targeting (along with UCF, SMU, Houston, Temple and Boise State), and if the Big East lost Louisville and West Virginia and maybe Cincinnati then the Big East might just drop football as they would be down to UCONN, Rutgers, and USF as football schools at that point.
Jon Wilner of the San Jose paper had a tweet Wednesday that I think sums it all up: Source: Next 7-8 days "momentous" for Big East, Big 12
Yes, it very much could be....course we've heard that before haven't we?
My Prediction: By Thanksgiving, Missouri will be heading to the SEC, and the Big 12 will have BYU, Louisville, and West Virginia as new members. I also predict an East/West split to the Big 12 and not North/South.
FanPost are for the voice of the fan and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Crimson and Cream Machine administrators.
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re-visit breach of contract by A&M
On the topic of conference busters and breach of contract. Water under the bridge by now, but I heard from a reliable source that A&M twice rejected UT offers to do a UT-TAMU deal with what finally became the Longhorn Network. News to me. What a dumb move by TAMU.
Plus, A&M’s breach of the Big 12 agreements was quite low-brow. They signed the deal, then walked away. A&M boasts of The Corp of Cadets. But what kind of military officers does a two-faced place like that produce? To think I used to admire that place, due to its military service heritage.
The damage potential to people who believe that contracts matter, like Iowa State, was a serious matter.
I formerly thought the UT athletic dept. was the Big 12 conference buster. Mostly because it was convenient for UT bashing. Now I think A&M is the main culprit. If anybody cares.
New Mexico
Having grown up in New Mexico and now living in Oklahoma, I can speak with full confidence to the complete lack of a football passion in New Mexico. Even in years when New Mexico won 7 or 8 games and made bowl runs (the Urlacher years in particular), the university still struggled to sell out the 35,000 seat stadium. There is no tailgating culture there. It’s not without warrant that UNM and NMSU are perennially two of the worst football programs in the country. Even the talented locals (Landry Jones) will never stay in-state. It’s a tough football draw and football drives the bus.
Basketball, on the other hand, is huge. I have been shocked living here in Oklahoma to the lack of fervor for basketball here. How does OU not sell out the LNC (Blake Griffin!?!)? The Pit in Albuquerque seats 18500 and has consistently sold out for decades. If UNM joined the conference and gained the recruiting boost the affiliation brings, it could become a consistent top 10-15 program. The level of support for basketball there is through the roof.
I must say, all told, I believe UNM brings more to the table than Cincinnati, but I doubt they would ever be considered. Football drives the bus…
Football and Basketball
at least they have a PASSION for something….I don’t know how well that transfers back and forth. KU doesn’t seem to care much for football….OU fans avoid Lloyd Noble Arena. But to me a good basketball following means you have fans of the University all ready…..get them a good conference, and hopefully upgraded facilities and football budget, I would think fans would convert some of that passion into football.
I’ve even said that compared to Colorado New Mexico isn’t that far below CU.
One of the most ridiculous statements I’ve ever seen.
The Ralphie Report - University of Colorado Athletics
SB Nation Denver
On the map John, on the freakin' map
Rumor has it that Texas is about to sign a huge corporate sponsorship deal for the Longhorn Network. They just have to decide which brand represents them best: Dyson, Eureka or Hoover.
by It'sTheVoice on Oct 20, 2011 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well....
in what way?
1) Fan following…..CU isn’t exactly a passionate following. CU barely puts 40K in Folsom…while this is better then the 30K that UNM currently brings, I would venture to say that 5 years of playing in the Big12 and UNM attendance would increase.
1B) Metro area: While Denver is bigger, I would say more people care about UNM in their market then does CU in Denver (that’s because UNM is the only game in town and Denver is a pro town) and that market penetration would be a close equal (CU I would assume would still have more eyeballs)
2) success on the football field: CU has been terrible and will so long as the University and the Athletic Department are criminally underfunded…and the fact that CU in only slightly better than one of the worst football programs in the nation is sad.
3) Basketball: New Mexico actually blows CU away in this as Coors Center is largely empty except for KU games. CU’s basketball attendance one of the lowest in the Big 12, where New Mexico’s is one of the top’s
4) Academically: CU is a top school….but UNM would actually be the 4th best in the Big 12 if they joined today behind only UT, KU, and Iowa State. Where if CU were to join the Big 12 they would be 3rd (maybe 2nd).
I agree
There should be a comma after “Colorado.”
by chuckb on Oct 20, 2011 4:51 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm surprised to see you predict us going back to 12 teams
Seems everything I have heard says the powers that be are all too happy to stay at 10 and not split up the pie any more than they have to. I also am not sure how Mizzou to the SEC is going to work – last I heard they didn’t have the votes….but then, I haven’t been following this at all lately; too damn aggravating.
"Gentlemen we must all hang together, or assuredly we will all hang separately."
Benjamin Franklin
by leatherneck1061 on Oct 20, 2011 6:52 PM CDT reply actions
the winds on 10 vs 12 seem to blow back and forth
seems the prevailing wind is for 12 teams (if Missouri leaves) is that the Conference and TV will need the Championship game to make up for the money lost if they lose Missouri TV market
East - West split
Redhawk, you had me right up until the east west rather than north-south split. How do you envision the division? Do you split the Kansas and Oklahoma Schools? You cannot put Oklahoma and Texas in separate divisions and break up the continuity of the RRR.
I see how an East West split would benefit the outliers (WVU & BYU), but it would increase travel for the Oklahoma and Texas schools.
Both E/W and N/S have issues
but N/S has bigger issues:
1) Provo Utah and Morgantown WV in the same “division”
2) No Texas schools/recruitment in the North
3) 3 best football programs all in one division (OU/UT/OSU)
I’m not sure how they end up working it out, I would think they split and then have one cross game set every year
East - West
BYU the Okla schools and the TX schools less TCU (the price of admission to an AQ conference). WVU, LOU, KSU, KU, ISU and TCU. The east would have more burden of travel, but would have an easier road to a conference game. Plus the west has to deal with BYU. It would be much more simple if Missouri stayed then no BYU and TCU stays west.
Missouri Board of Curators
meets for 2 straight days….here’s what they announced. The President can now sign a deal with another conference if he chooses to do so..
What the hell Missouri? Stay or Go…but just get off the dang pot!
I’m still for forcing Baylor out, getting down to 8 teams, and just having Oklahoma schedule some more interesting non conference games. Unless you can add some really credible competition, there’s no reason to add anyone to the league. 8 mediocre conference games isn’t any better than 7 mediocre conference games + a title game that no one cares about. A reconstituted BigXII title game would be worse than the ACC title game, which is saying a lot because that game is a flipping joke. Just add good teams to Oklahoma’s schedule and split the conference pie 8 ways instead of 12.
I’m starting to wonder of the people calling the shots on this deal spend any time actually watching the games.
no actually they don't
you are thinking like a fan..and what is good for a fan. They are looking at TV ratings.
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