Weekly BCS Briefing: Week Three

by dishingoutdimes on Sep 20, 2010 7:24 PM CDT in Football

The Arizona Wildcats leaped up 10 spots in the latest simulated BCS rankings.

Week Two Simulated BCS Rankings

Week One Simulated BCS Rankings

There weren't a whole lot of radical changes in the BCS simulation from Week Two to Week Three, which suggests that the computer rankings are finally beginning to settle down somewhat. I think by the time the Harris Poll is first released next Sunday, we'll start to be able to hone in on where everyone stands in the BCS chase.

48 teams qualified this week to make it onto my BCS ranking spreadsheet, which means that they were receiving votes in either the Coaches Poll or AP Poll (used in lieu of the Harris Poll for one additional week), or that they were ranked in the Top 25 in one of the the computer rankings. Only 35.4% of the teams saw their ranking fluctuate by 5 spots or more, and only 29.4% of those were in the Top 25.

The rankings are available, after the jump...

Instant Reactions

Three teams split #1 rankings in either human polls or computer rankings: Alabama, Texas, and Oklahoma. Not surprisingly, those three teams are ranked 1-2-3 at the top of the simulated BCS rankings.
The computers love Texas, but the Longhorns appear to have got the boost this week from playing Texas Tech, whom the computers also valued quite highly. Texas' average computer ranking jumped from 6.5 to 1.5 in the course of the past week.
The humans and the computers were both impressed by Arizona's win over Iowa.
I think that the Alabama-Florida game and the OU-Texas game in Week Five will effectively set up the front runners for the BCS Championship Game for the stretch run. Big week for college football.
An opening would emerge for another team to immediately sneak in as a front runner (Ohio State most likely) if Alabama loses at Arkansas this week, and then beats Florida at home the following week. Buckeye fans should root for that scenario.

The Elite

Teams in this category are either ranked #1 or #2 or they are within a cluster of teams that does not trail 2nd place by more than 0.05 points.

Well Within Striking Distance

There is a pretty significant gap between TCU and Oregon in the rankings this week, but Oregon and Nebraska are both being penalized for playing some not-so-good teams thus far. Both Oregon and Nebraska have substantial conference games upcoming and therefore they should be considered "well within striking distance". However, you may notice that Boise State is in this cluster of teams and I did not include them. That is because their strength of schedule will continue to fall as they go into conference play, and they'll be hurt in the computer polls. For me to put Boise State in this group would require a significant shakeup at the top, or some WAC team really standing out by the end of the year as a "tough game". You could also label this group "the contenders".

Need Some Help

This group of teams has enough clout with the human voters and the computer rankings right now to be able to make up some ground by the end of the season. However, they'll also likely need some help with a combination of losses by teams ranked ahead of them, as many wins as possible by other teams on their schedule, and winning out. Simply put, these teams are far enough in the hole that they'll need to run the table to make it to the title game. Auburn and Arkansas get thrown in this group because they'll certainly have some big games (Alabama, South Carolina, LSU, and vs. each other) that would help them shoot up the rankings faster than some of the teams they're clustered around.

Long Shots

Stanford and Utah will need a lot more help than the likes of Wisconsin, LSU, and Boise State to get to the top. They are sitting too much in the hole at this point, even compared to the teams in the above group, and unlike Arkansas and Auburn, they don't have the high profile games that would shoot them quickly up the rankings.

Extreme Long Shots

These teams have a bit of a statistical edge at this point over the "best of the rest" - undefeated teams that haven't proved a whole lot against any good teams this year - the likes of West Virginia, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Michigan State, and Kansas State. These teams would need a crazy year like 2007 when a 2 loss LSU team faced a 1 loss Ohio State team for the national title. Under such a scenario, they'd also need BCS busters like Boise State and TCU to lose once, as those teams are finally being viewed as legitimate enough to compete for a title, by virtue of their rankings.

Week 4-5 Games Ranked By Average Simulated BCS Points

By using the BCS simulated rankings, we can see that there are a lot of good matchups over the next couple weeks that should go a long way towards sorting out the college football landscape. In Week 4, there are 11 Top 48 matchups, including the much anticipated journey of #1 Alabama to Fayetteville, Arkansas to play the Hogs. This is followed up by 10 such matchups in week 5 including 3 absolute blockbusters (provided nobody loses beforehand) in Florida at Alabama, the Red River Rivalry, and Stanford at Oregon.

0.8646 #4 Florida at #1 Alabama (week 5)
0.8276 #2 Texas vs. #3 Oklahoma in Dallas (week 5)
0.6745 #1 Alabama at #17 Arkansas (week 4)
0.5462 #14 Stanford at #8 Oregon (week 5)
0.4453 #13 South Carolina at #16 Auburn (week 4)
0.3950 #31 Oregon State at #6 Boise State (week 4)
0.3475 #22 West Virginia at #10 LSU (week 4)
0.3314 #8 Oregon at #43 Arizona State (week 4)
0.3083 #11 Wisconsin at #25 Michigan State (week 5)
0.2496 #42 California at #12 Arizona (week 4)
0.2153 #14 Stanford at #45 Notre Dame (week 4)
0.2157 #19 Penn State at #20 Iowa (week 5)
0.1106 #40 Temple at #19 Penn State (week 4)
0.1076 #21 Miami (FL) at #34 Pittsburgh (week 4)
0.1032 #21 Miami (FL) at #37 Clemson (week 5)
0.0647 #41 Texas A&M at #24 Oklahoma State (week 5)
0.0166 #32 NC State at #36 Georgia Tech (week 4)
0.0147 #43 Arizona State at #31 Oregon State (week 5)
0.0126 #44 Virginia Tech at #32 NC State (week 5)
0.0016 #44 Virginia Tech at #38 Boston College (week 4)
0.0015 #45 Notre Dame at #38 Boston College (week 5)

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Comments

Assuming Oklahoma and Ohio State win out

do you not think Ohio State will have the computer rankings to stay ahead of OU? I don’t have their schedule on my phone but they’ll have wins against Michigan, Iowa and Penn State and probable ACC champ Miami. Even if OU is ahead in the computers, Harris and coaches will hold undefeated Ohio State steady at 2.

Again this is all predicated on the SEC champ going undefeated and staying number 1.

by SoonerDutch on Sep 21, 2010 3:01 PM CDT via mobile reply actions

So you are asking me to assume:

1. SEC Champ is undefeated
2. OU is undefeated
3. Ohio State is undefeated

Well, there are several issues at play. First, OU played a MUCH tougher non-conference schedule, and assuming that Air Force and Florida State will continue winning, that should remain the case. At the very least, they’ll wind up with a tougher non-con than Ohio State who played Ohio, Marshall, Eastern Michigan, and obviously Miami (a good game no doubt).

Second, OU would, under these assumptions, get to play in the Big 12 Championship Game, probably against Nebraska, and this would take place a week after Ohio State stopped playing. The power of “speaking last” is proven, and if Oklahoma made a statement in the last week of the season, it would benefit them in the human polls and the computers.

Third, you cannot underestimate the value of the Red River Rivalry. Ohio State does not play a top 10 opponent this year based on current rankings, and probably won’t if they win out (2 losses for PSU, Iowa). The human poll voters LOVE big victories, and if Oklahoma were to beat Texas, I think they would jump to #3 to #5 in the Human polls depending on how good the victory was.

I like the edge that OU has on Ohio State in the computer rankings so far. Ohio State is not even ranked in some computer polls right now. That will obviously change as they get into conference play, but you can see that it makes a huge difference above.

Finally, let’s put it all in perspective. I think we can all agree that an undefeated SEC, Big 12 and Big 10 team would be ranked 1-2-3 in some fashion at the top of the human polls. The differences will be made up in the computer polls. Since OU has a long history of doing well in the computers, since the computers are valuing Big 12 teams highly this year, and since OU has a huge edge in the computers right now, I think that an undefeated OU or an undefeated Texas would edge out Ohio State.

Of course, anything can happen, and college football is crazy, so let’s wait and see!

"But we all know that games aren't played on paper...they are played by little men inside our TV sets." --Kenny Mayne

by dishingoutdimes on Sep 21, 2010 3:14 PM CDT reply actions

Another thing to remember:

The Harris is 1/3
The Coaches is 1/3
The computers are 1/3

For the Harris and Coaches polls, they take the total number of votes they got (25 points for a 1st place vote, 24 points for 2nd place vote) and divide it by the total number of points possible to get the BCS point total for that sub category.

For example: OU has 1060 points in the latest Coaches poll so that part of their BCS calculation is 1060/1475 where 1475 is the most points possible (59 first place votes). Their score would be 0.719.

Now imagine for a second that Alabama or Florida is the clear #1 team. But perhaps the human voters are split – some think that Alabama has a better resume, and others think that Oklahoma has the better resume. One team may LOOK like they have a bigger edge in the human poll (#2 vs. #3), but in terms of the BCS only the points matter! Split decisions between two teams leave the final decision up to the computers more often than not.

Ah the BCS! What a crazy system lol

"But we all know that games aren't played on paper...they are played by little men inside our TV sets." --Kenny Mayne

by dishingoutdimes on Sep 21, 2010 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions

First, I think y'all have a great SOS, with or without AF and FSU doing more,

but what impact would Michigan have, if they stay ranked when they play Ohio State? Now, that’s assuming alot, considering I think Michigan will have dropped at least 3 by there. Wisconsin is also ranked 11th now and they play in 4 weeks. Ohio State has the chance to play 4 teams who are currently ranked by the end of the season, 3 of those in the last 3 weeks. OU also has a shot at playing 4 ranked teams, but that’s counting us and Missouri being ranked when you play them. I do like your point about playing the Big 12 CG. This bcs stuff is interesting.

Kendall Hunter for Heisman

by AUKingOState on Sep 21, 2010 11:05 PM CDT up reply actions

Michigan has a better chance than O-State of being ranked when those games are played.

O-State is just as likely to have three losses by Thanksgiving. Not to mention Michigan has the most hyped player in America.

Of course this is all hypothetical… But you’re right, the BCS is fascinating.

by SoonerDutch on Sep 22, 2010 12:34 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Since it's Week 3, I think you're dissecting it too much

The way to look at it right now is this:

If there’s an undefeated SEC team, an undefeated Ohio State and an undefeated Big 12 team – they will split votes. People will simply not agree on which team is best. Their point totals in the human polls will be far closer. At that point it gets left up to the computers. Most computer rankings don’t EXPLICITLY factor in “strength of schedule”, but the teams that each team plays are factored in. With the computers, like I said above, you have to just look at trends at this point. Right now the computers LOVE OU and Texas, they have been favoring Big 12 teams like OSU, TTech, KSU, etc. vs. similar teams in other conferences, etc. You also should consider that computers and human polls will tend to value elite wins over a top 5-10 team more than 2-3 wins vs. teams struggling to stay in the Top 25.

My gut feeling after having closely followed the BCS rankings and computations since it’s been running is that an undefeated OU or Texas would get the edge over an undefeated Ohio State. Big 12 champs tend to get a whole lot of love from the computers, as do SEC champs.

As you and Dutch both point out though, this is all hypothetical at this point.

"But we all know that games aren't played on paper...they are played by little men inside our TV sets." --Kenny Mayne

by dishingoutdimes on Sep 22, 2010 2:33 AM CDT up reply actions

Yeah this is all hypothetical and will change by next Monday but

again assuming the three basic conditions; SEC Champ is undefeated, OU is undefeated, and Ohio State is undefeated.

I think the undefeated SEC Champ, especially Alabama, would probably be a strong number one due to the national perception of the conference.

Ohio State ends with three potential quality games, Iowa, Penn State, and Michigan, against a potential Heisman frontrunner. They play five potential top twenty teams, those three, plus Wisconsin, and the likely ACC champ Miami. I would imagine that the computers would begin to give OSU enough points to at least stay close to OU.

OU has the better non-con schedule, but I think the pundits will harp on the Miami victory. Neither one (Florida State and Air Force) will end up being conference champion.

I agree and probably overlooked that the Big 12 Championship game is key for OU in that final week, but they have to have a solid victory to make that count. I think if Ohio State dominates over that three week span that would cancel out a “neutral” or even “good” win over Nebraska.

Not to forget that Nebraska or Texas will end up not being a top ten team at the end of year due to two (or more) losses.

by SoonerDutch on Sep 21, 2010 11:04 PM CDT reply actions

This would all hold Ohio State at #2 in the human polls

and keep them close to OU in the computers.

I guess the question then becomes who is ahead of undefeated Ohio State in the computers; SEC Champ, OU, and maybe Pac 10 champ, 1 loss SEC runner up?

by SoonerDutch on Sep 22, 2010 12:25 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions