Pre-season football rankings - the road to #8
by chrisabo on Aug 7, 2010 11:27 PM CDT
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PrintUSA Today released the Top 25 Coaches Poll today. There was some good news - the Sooners, ranked 8th, are the highest ranked team in the poll that did not end last season ranked in the top 25. If you assume that means that we have to jump 6 teams to end up as one of the top two teams, let's take a quick look at what has to happen for us to end up in one of those top two slots:
| Rank | Team (first-place votes) | 2009 record | Points | Final 2009 rank |
| 1. | Alabama (55) | 14-0 | 1,469 | 1 |
| 2. | Ohio State (4) | 11-2 | 1,392 | 5 |
| 3. | Florida | 13-1 | 1,245 | 3 |
| 4. | Texas | 13-1 | 1,240 | 2 |
| 5. | Boise State | 14-0 | 1,215 | 4 |
| 6. | Virginia Tech | 10-3 | 1,052 | 10 |
| 7. | TCU | 12-1 | 1,051 | 6 |
Everything below assumes that we can overcome any challenges and win our games. That includes beating #20 Florida State at home, beating unranked (#26) Cincinnati on the road, beating #4 Texas, and then a showdown against #9 Nebraska in the Big 12 title game. It is not impossible, but will require consistency that the Sooners did not have last year.
On to the other pieces that we need to have fall into place - really it is pretty simple (if you want skip to the end, I provided a quick recap of what needs to happen):
#7 TCU faces no real tests in the season (at least based on pre-season rankings). As expected, Utah and Air Force are expected to be the two stiffest tests, but TCU should have enough firepower to win - even facing Utah on the road. They have a solid shot to go undefeated, but if they do it may still not be enough to overcome the Sooners who start right behind them in the poll. I think Utah or Air Force tests them enough to put doubt in the voter's minds and these close calls drops TCU behind us in the poll.
#6 Virgina Tech and #5 Boise State play each other to open the season, so one of them is out. If Boise State wins, they face no other competition the rest of the season and I expect that pollsters would continue to push them into the top two. If Virginia Tech wins, they face some additional tests, including a season-ending test at Miami. For our scenario, our rooting interest is with the Hokies to beat the Broncos as that knocks the Broncos out of the MNC chase while leaving the Hokies with additional chances to stumble.
Beat #4 Texas on October on 10/02/10 and their season is done and they are eliminated from the chase.
That same weekend, I think most Sooner fans have to swallow their pain left over from the Orange Bowl and pull for #3 Florida to beat #1 Alabama - Florida faces tougher tests after the Bama game while Bama has a friendlier schedule and I don't see a real challenge - even in the vaunted SSSSSEEEEEECCCC. We have to hope then that Florida decides that this upset of 'Bama guarantees all of their future opponents to roll over and they stumble late in the season allowing us to jump them to set up a MNC match-up against....
#2 Ohio State
In the "Youngstown Bowl" or the "Redemption Bowl" or something along those lines where we will have to hear again and again about how both the Sooners and the Buckeyes have lost multiple BCS games over the past five years.
So, to recap:
Go Utes - play the Frogs close at least
Go Hokies - Beat the Broncos
Go Tarheels / Go Canes - Beat the Hokies
Go Gators - Beat ' Bama
Go Bulldogs - Beat the Gators
BEAT TEXAS
BEAT THE BUCKEYES - BRING HOME # 8
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This is a great write up on this season.
I think OU has a great chance to go undefeated, but I’m still worried OU gets left out of the BCS-NC game even with that.
Our rep (as undeserved as I think this kinda rep is) of losing NC games, will have the voters going…“Um anyone but OU” and voting in some one else, especially if the other choice is Boise St. That way the BCS can say, “See! The system worked! Any team can play for a National Championship!…Now, please don’t sue us”
The team I think that got over looked in the Coaches poll is Iowa. They returned a lot off last year’s team I believe.
Colorado Rockies correspondent at My Team Rivals (www.mtrmedia.com/rockies) and my own site Rockies Reporter (www.rockiesreporter.wordpress.com) and one of the top Rockies writers at the Bleacher Report.
I would be shocked to see an undefeated Boise State staying ahead of an undefeated Oklahoma team, or any "realistically" undefeated power conference member for that matter,
just because of the structure of the BCS formula.
OU just has to be close to Boise in the two human polls, which would probably be the case, and the huge gap with the computers will make it up. Boise had the same computer ranking as Oregon, and we all know how their game turned out.
no way we get left out of the MNC
if we go undefeated based on SOS and where we’ll be in the poll at the end of the year. We play UT, FSU, Cinn as well as A&M and TTU, a couple of pretty good offenses. BS plays it’s marquee game opening weekend and will watch as other teams jump them, win or lose. Also, I don’t buy into the rep for losing the big game because you have to win your CCG to get to the MNC and we’re 5-1 in that regard. I’m really excited about this years tea!. Tons of potential. Lets get in started! Come on FOOTBALL!
In all likelihood it'll be messier than that.
I have only one problem with this otherwise excellent post: it more or less assumes that two undefeated teams from BCS conferences (or among the tiny handful of non-BCS conference squads that the football world takes seriously) will be left standing at the end of the season.
As we know, that’s far from always the case.
It is even possible that the loser of the OU-Texas game could end up in the MNC game…if they go undefeated in their other games and the winner manages to blow two other conference games.
Stranger things have happened in the recent past.
There is no "i" in Teamocil. At least not where you'd think.
by GreenNGoldSooner on Aug 8, 2010 12:05 PM CDT reply actions
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