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Week Four, Or The Reason Why Polls Shouldn't Be Released Until October

If this college football season doesn't remind you of 2007, in which there were big upsets on a weekly basis, then you must have been living in a cave for the past few years. In Week Four, there were four AP Top-10 teams that lost, and another one nearly lost (LSU to Mississippi State). Three more ranked teams from 11 through 25 on the AP Poll also fell, meaning that nearly a third of the nation's top teams fell on Saturday.

Week Four just may need to be called the week of the upset.

It also just goes to show you why the official BCS rankings have the right idea - not being released until about halfway through the season. The preseason rankings are a joke, they rate some teams way too high, and others way too low, and if certain teams are starting closer to the finish line than others, that just seems like an unfair advantage. Plus, the giants that fell in week four got penalized harshly for their losses. California dropped 18 spots from #6 to #24 after getting throttled by Oregon. Ole Miss fell 17 spots from #4 to #21 after barely losing on the road to a tough South Carolina squad. Miami fell 8 spots from #9 to #17 after losing handily to Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. And Penn State fell 10 spots from #5 to #15 after getting upset by Iowa...again.

I think that after teams have played about 5 to 6 games (around Week 6), you should have enough information to rank the teams in a relatively fair fashion. These massive fluctuations show that the pollsters have no idea how to properly rank teams, and they don't have a clue how to penalize teams for losses, or reward teams for victories. Case in point? Undefeated Iowa is still behind Penn State, whom they beat soundly on the road, in both the Harris and USA Today/Coaches polls - the two polls that matter for BCS rankings. By the way, OU opens at #9 in the Harris Poll behind both USC and Ohio State.

More about Week Four after the jump!

Star-divide

Bests and Worsts

  • Best Undefeated Team Sitting Outside The Top 10:  I've got to think that the pollsters got this one right and go with Cincinnati. I talked about them in my Week Three recap, and I think they're for real. They struggled at home against Fresno State, but have otherwise looked great. Plus, they play in the Big East.
  • Worst Undefeated Team Sitting Outside The Top 10:  Tough one. I considered Auburn and Texas A&M, but I'll have to go with Wisconsin who has struggled against Northern Illinois, Fresno State and Michigan State. All of those games were at home, and they didn't win any of them by more than 8 points. Their one blowout? Against Wofford.
  • Best Team That Pulled Off An Upset Of A Top 10 Team This Week:  Sorry Virginia Tech, you should win this title, but I'm not counting that as an upset. This leaves my choices as Iowa, South Carolina and Oregon. Iowa is scrappy, but they should have lost to Northern Iowa, so no thanks. I'll go with the Gamecocks because they are 4 points away from being undefeated and their only loss was on the road to Georgia.
  • Best Team In College Football RIGHT NOW:  I think the team that's playing the best ball right now is Alabama. Florida's seemed a little off their game the past two weeks. Texas is a close second, but they beat up on UTEP after looking beatable against Texas Tech. Alabama beat a very good Virginia Tech team and then rolled off three straight laughers. They are clicking right now.
Nick-saban_medium

Nick Saban has the Tide rolling.

Why Are We Using These?

First, the link to the Sagarin Ratings, which are 1/6 of the computer rankings used in the BCS polls. Be advised that the BCS uses the "ELO Chess" rating on there, not the rating on the far left, or the "Predictor" rating. In this case, 1/6 of the BCS computer ratings would have Iowa at #1, followed by Boise State, Alabama, LSU and Virginia Tech. That's right, Texas and Florida wouldn't even be in the top 5. In fact, Florida would be at #7 and Texas would be at #12! Where would Oklahoma be? Scroll all the way down to #27.

Again, why are we using rankings like this as a way to determine our national champion? I understand they benefited us last year, but this is ridiculous.

The Billingsley Ratings (another sixth of the rankings) are a little better, but they still have Oregon at #5, Georgia at #10, Utah at #11, and Oklahoma at #13. The Colley Matrix (another sixth of the rankings) are atrocious. The top 5 is Iowa, LSU, Michigan, Florida and Virginia Tech. Meanwhile, Oklahoma is not even ranked, while teams like Wisconsin (#14), Auburn (#10), and Arizona (#19) are ranked.

Don't be surprised to see OU in a wildly low position when the first BCS rankings are released. To be fair, if we were to beat Texas and Miami, I'm pretty sure our computer rankings will be much better. This is also the reason why the rankings generally aren't released right away, as it takes awhile for them to work all their oddities out.

Quick Hits
  • Robert Griffin, Baylor QB extraordinaire, is injured for the season. 
  • Sam Bradford is seeking clearance to play this week from world renowned surgeon Dr. James Andrews.
  • Still being projected to be in the Fiesta Bowl against Boise State. Also, the Iowa bandwagon has officially opened up for business.
  • College Football News' rankings make a run to be included as a computer ranking. #17? Really?

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CFNs rankings

I don’t think the CFN rankings are really that off. I think TCU should not be ranked that high, but the rest of the rankings are pretty solid. I mean we have blown up Idaho State and Tulsa – our wins are not anything that you can point to and really say that you know how good we are going to be and with how flaky BYU has been, it is also hard to tell much of anything by the loss. And their points about Miami are what still have me somewhat worried – “This is still a young, ultra-athletic team that can beat anyone in the country on the right day.”

And three of us posted about Griffin – I think everyone is disappointed that he will not play in Norman.

by chrisabo on Sep 27, 2009 10:23 PM CDT reply actions  

p.s.

sorry about your Bucs. They should have drafted Adrian Peterson when they had the chance

by CGNC on Sep 28, 2009 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions  

i really don't think you should be saying tcu should not be ranked that high

you probably think the same thing about houston. where would you put boise state? we saw how that worked out in the fiesta bowl and boise state is a much better defensive team than the version you saw in that bcs bowl. i don’t know why oaklahoma is ranked so high. a win over idaho state and tulsa. i’m sure when tcu goes undefeated this year you just might have to play them again. the diference is tcu is much better this year and the sooners are not as good. tcu has two road wins over acc opponents. virginia and clemson. the 30 -14 score in the va. game is deceiving. those were scrub td’s and tcu only allowed 7 first downs. the clemson win was very good and it was a stellar effort by the tcu defense. when tcu plays byu they will beat them by at least 17 points. bob stoops has lost his last 4 or five bcs games. if you lose to miami you will not even goto a bcs bowl. yes the sooners beat the horned frogs last year but if i remember correctly tcu won the two before that. i’m just pointing out some facts and opinions. peace out. ramble on!

by wolfmanshowlforever on Oct 1, 2009 10:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

I agree

Way too early to rank teams. FSU is apparently bi-polar. As a Canes fan I know that Oklahoma is way better than V-Tech. My team is young and athletic, but young and athletic sometimes make more mistakes. Since their poor showing in Blacksburg I want to see them play hard against OU on Saturday. I have nothing but respect for Stoops.

by CGNC on Sep 28, 2009 11:11 AM CDT reply actions  

I think pre-season polls are a joke

based a lot on hype, and popularity.

BUT….they are something I truly look forward to each summer. They are like a sign that fall can college football are coming.

by Redhawk on Sep 28, 2009 11:43 AM CDT reply actions  

Guilty as charged

I am so hungry for football by July, I will read anything, by anyone, posted anywhere. Arena football is just enough to arouse the hunger without bedding it back down. In the fall, bye-weeks are hell and have me counting down the minutes until the next game. I am ashamed, but there it is, I’m a football junkie. Is there a drop back seven step program for this? Or do I have to punt?

My name is BSU81, and I love football.

by BSU81 on Sep 29, 2009 12:37 AM CDT up reply actions  

Ahhhhh

but there is always recruiting to keep you busy ;-D

by CGNC on Sep 29, 2009 10:27 AM CDT up reply actions  

One of the worst after-effects of the pre-season and early-season polls is...

… that it leaves some teams’ with over-inflated strength-of-schedule ratings which continues to help them all season long, ( the teams that are lucky enough to get to play one of the grossly over-rated teams early in the season).

by WLR on Oct 3, 2009 11:39 AM CDT reply actions  

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