The Ryan Reynolds Effect
I'm sure we all know how good Ryan Reynolds can be when he's healthy. The problem for Reynolds has been staying healthy while at OU. In 2005, Reynolds played almost exclusively on special teams as a freshman. In 2006, he missed the season after suffering an offseason knee injury, and he received a medical redshirt. He was a little dinged up in 2007 with a neck injury, and last year he tore his ACL against Texas.
How good is Reynolds when healthy? Here's an excerpt from my spring football preview:
Reynolds has been injured often in his career, and was knocked out for the season in the Red River Rivalry last year. Despite only playing in six games he was an honorable mention All Big 12 by the AP. When he's healthy he's a great player. He had 10 tackles against TCU and 14 tackles against Baylor. In fact, against Baylor he received Brent Venables' first ever perfect linebacking grade.
Many people thought that Reynolds' injury was a turning point in the Red River Rivalry, and that his absence might have sent the Sooner defense into disarray. Texas fans obviously poo poo this suggestion, while Sooner fans think it made a big difference.
So how big of an impact does Reynolds have on the defense? Find out after the jump!
It turns out that Reynolds has a pretty big impact on the defense. You can take the subjective approach and listen to his teammates:
"He's still the same Ryan," weakside linebacker Travis Lewis said. "He's making the checks. He's in the right place. He's covering up for my mistakes... Like yesterday (at the scrimmage), I was supposed to be inside and I was outside, and he just covered up for me. He's the Ryan of old."
Or his coach:
"He's doing well, real well," OU defensive coordinator Brent Venables said. "He hasn't had any limitations. Finds the ball every snap, is always in great position. He had 25-plus plays (in OU's recent scrimmage) and had seven or eight tackles. That's about par for the course for him."
Or you can take a more objective approach. I decided to take a look at the numbers from last season, as that was really when the Sooners defense started to rely on Reynolds as a major contributer, and really when Reynolds began to come into his own.
Reynolds only played in 6 games, and one was cut short by the torn ACL. Over the first five games, he averaged 8.2 tackles per game. This means that Reynolds accounted for 13.1% of the OU tackles over that timeframe. That's pretty impressive when you consider that he only accounts for 9.1% of the starting defense (1 out of 11 players) and the proportion dwindles when you consider defensive line rotations and substitutions, especially in the early blowout games. Basically, Reynolds was statistically one of the most active tacklers on the team. Similarly, over the first five games, he accounted for 11.6% of the defense's tackles for a loss (5 of 43).
The impact of Reynolds becomes more apparent when you remove him from the equation:
- In First 5 Games Excluding FCS Chattanooga (Reynolds Played): The defense allowed 311.3 yards per game and 4.35 yards per play. Without counting penalties, the defense allowed 16.3 first downs per game.
- In Final 9 Games (Reynolds Injured): The defense allowed 429.7 yards per game and 5.93 yards per play. Without counting penalties, the defense allowed 20.3 first downs per game.
Essentially this means that without Ryan Reynolds on the field, the defense gve up about 4 more first downs per game, and about a yard and a half more per play.
However, this year Reynolds is back and healthy, and according to all reports he is looking great in practice. He's a smart player and a good athlete and he should help solidify the defense. Additionally, he'll have the help of the 4th leading tackler nationally, Travis Lewis, and returning starter Keenan Clayton. This all bodes well for a strong linebacking corps. Regardless of what happens with Mike Balogun, there are still quality players for depth.
If Reynolds can stay healthy, look for a defense with a little more teeth this year. Opponents last year scored about two more touchdowns with Reynolds out of the games (13.6 ppg more). The scoring defense averaged in at 16.8 ppg with Reynolds on the field. With more depth, experience, and talent this year on the defensive side of the ball, if the Sooners can avoid injuries, they may only give up a couple of touchdowns per game.
And I'm sure that would be a welcome change in Norman.
0 recs |
11 comments
|
Comments
You can believe ONE thing...
I will be keeping a Ryan Reynolds voodoo doll sealed in bubble wrap, secured with duct tape, and locked in my safe at home.
by ousooner919 on Aug 26, 2009 4:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You should have also compared the teams you played in the final 9 games
to the teams you played in the first 5 games. I guarantee there was a great deal of difference in level of competition. I can think of Texas, Kansas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State all teams that were high scoring teams in those final 9 games, even though y’all held Tech to only 21 points, and this does not include y’alls two postseason games. Your stats are misleading.
Your argument that Reynolds’ injury was the reason that y’all lost to Texas is weak. Did y’all lose to Florida because Murray was hurt? Did Texas lose to Tech because Orakpo and Cosby were hurt?
by 2Cor12:9 on Aug 26, 2009 10:10 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I see your argument, but...
…splits like this (before/after Reynolds) are quoted ALL THE TIME in sports. Take baseball for example, they’ll look at records before/after Manny Ramirez’s exclusion from the roster (ie: drugs), before/after A-Rod was hurt with the Yankees, and so on.
I do see where you’re coming from though.
And yes, it’s possible Texas lost because they didn’t have Orakpo to pressure Harrell OR the Harrell/Crabtree combo was just too good to cover…
by soxboys21 on Aug 27, 2009 8:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure comparing
a 12 game season; in which a schedule can be heavily lopsided, to a 162 game season is fair. In baseball you play the same teams over and over again. College football isn’t quite like any other sport.
Don’t get me wrong. I think the loss of Reynolds was HUGE and I hope the defense would’ve performed better without him, but the level of competition was quite a bit different before/after his injury.
by ern on Aug 27, 2009 8:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
there’s no comparison to a 162-game schedule.
What I do like about NCAAF is the parity we’re beginning to see. If we played Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State NUMEROUS times in the ’08 season, it could very well have been split 50-50 as far as wins go over those numerous games.
by soxboys21 on Aug 27, 2009 9:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wasn't implying that Texas lost to Tech because of injuries
I was simply showing that if one train of thought applies to Team A, then surely the same conclusion should be reached with Team B.
by 2Cor12:9 on Aug 27, 2009 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you 100%, but...
do you tell that to Tech fans?
by ern on Aug 27, 2009 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know I never get on there blogs
There not a rival, just an annoyance.
by 2Cor12:9 on Aug 27, 2009 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the loss to Texas
Had more to do with the lack of depth and a capable replacement more than it did his injury. Every team has injuries. (Orakpo/Cosby against Tech) The difference is your ability to overcome them (or not).
In the case of the OU/TX game- anyone who tried to fill the huge void left by Reynolds departure completely wet the bed. (I think it was mostly Austin Crow) That’s more about being unprepared or poorly coached.
Everyone knows that losing perhaps your best defensive player and the qb of that unit is a huge deal. But the competition level before his inury was waaaay lower than after. And regardless of injuries the coaches should’ve had a little bit better of a back up plan -especially given Reynolds history of inuries.
We lost the game. Lets get over it.
by ern on Aug 27, 2009 8:53 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
This is right on
Now a back up though doesn’t get as many reps in practice. Having to step IN a game can be tough…then make it against a team like Texas…it’s even tougher. Throw in the fact there is a reason the player IS a back-up to begin with, and there will be a drop off.
by Redhawk on Aug 27, 2009 12:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
losing Reynolds hurt there is no doubt. I think the coaches thought we play the odds & play the one in the system the longest (Crow) thinking knowledge trumped sheer athleticism – Balogun,Box, Robinson. The nail in the coffin IMO while watching the game was the non-interception ruling in the endzone. OU never recovered from that 3 point lead.
by OU JJ on Aug 27, 2009 9:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs














