The "SEC Speed" Myth Debunked
- Since when did a 40 yard dash time become an indicator of how great a team or conference is? Even if the SEC ran faster 40 yard dash times, how in the world does that make them a better conference. I know this isn't an argument that is made explicitly a lot, but the "SEC speed" myth is enhancing the aura around the SEC.
- Does anyone honestly believe that the SEC consistently recruits, and has a monopoly on, the fastest players in the country?
- Running a 40 yard dash is way different than playing in a football game. That's why football and track are two separate sports.
First Question: Is The SEC Actually Faster?
No. It's really not. But don't just take my word for it, because I'll give you plenty of stats and quotes to back up my opinion. I'll start with some information from a well written article by Jonathan Chait at slate.com back in 2002. First, the myth probably gets perpetuated because many people with a soapbox choose to do so. Lee Corso has referred to the South as the "speed states" (Chait article). Not to mention that the same people put an insanely high emphasis on 40 yard dash times. Why the 40 yard dash? It doesn't measure an athlete's ability to run routes with pads on, or a receiver's ability to get behind the coverage. But, for argument's sake, let's assume that the 40 yard dash is really important. Take it away Jonathan:
Casey Calder, an Internet college football analyst, compared the times of skill position players from Northern schools versus those who played in the South. He found that wide receivers from Northern schools actually outran their Southern counterparts: The Northerners, on average, ran the 40 in 4.502 seconds, while the Southerners ran it in 4.548. Southern and Northern cornerbacks finished in a virtual dead heat, 4.535 to 4.555, respectively.
The only way to objectively measure a 40 yard dash time is at the combine because schools and players will tend to exaggerate the stats to make themselves look better. The stats above use an NFL combine time. Let's take a look at some numbers from the most recent NFL combine.
Knowshon Moreno, RB from Georgia, is considered to be a speed back. He posted a 4.60 in the 40 yard dash at the NFL combine. Glen Coffee from Alabama ran a 4.58. That's amazing considering that it usually takes a time under 4.45 or 4.5 to start turning heads among NFL scouts.
But a better metric for speed, and for NFL success, among running backs is the speed score. The formula is (weight x 200) / (40 time to the 4th power). It basically accounts for a player's weight in the 40 time and adjusts it on a nice scale. NFL teams like to see a score above 100, and such scores are typical of successful NFL backs. Of the RB prospects at this year's combine, only 7 running backs had a speed score above 100. None - I repeat none - were from the SEC. 2 were from the ACC, 2 were from the Big Ten, 1 was from the Big East, 1 was from the WAC, and the last from Tennessee State.
The fastest 40 time at the combine this year was posted by Darrius Heyward-Bey of Maryland (ACC) who ran a 4.30. In fact, the top time posted at any of the skill positions (WR, RB, CB, S) was not from anyone in the SEC. But none of that should matter anyways, because the 40 time is irrelevant when it comes to competing on the football field.
More after the jump...
Question Two: Why is the 40 Yard Dash Irrelevant?
Besides the obvious answer, which is that players run a lot differently when there is contact involved (i.e. bump and run coverage), weather conditions involved, and they have pads on, a small difference in the 40 yard dash doesn't translate to the football field.
Let's do some math. Consider an approximate 20 yard sprint, and let's assume that the 40 yard dash is actually important. Let's take an offensive player with a supposedly good 40 time of 4.4 seconds and a defensive player with a supposedly plodding 4.6 second 40 time.
We figure that for about 20 yards, they'll be running for about 2.5 seconds. In that time span, the offensive player would be able to run 22.73 yards. The defensive player would be able to run 21.74 yards in the same timeframe. Without considering bump-and-run, and how the player runs in pads, over a typical route a WR with an extra 0.2 seconds on their 40 might be able to run an additional yard downfield.
While it is a relatively good metric of approximately how fast a player is, it does not necessarily indicate a decided advantage. Obviously a WR could outrun most LB but the difference in speed between WR and DB is relatively small, something that wouldn't necessarily give an advantage to either player.
It's OK Knowshon, that 40 time doesn't matter as much as you think it does. And you'll be making the big bucks anyways.
What gives a player an advantage is a combination of straight-line sprint speed, agility, and angles. A defensive player that takes proper angles and plays smart will look a lot faster than they appear. Let's do some more math.
A player who runs 30 yards to where they need to be with a 40 time of 4.4 seconds would get there in 3.3 seconds. Let's say they take the wrong angle initially for 15 yards, and are off by only an angle of 20 degrees. They would run that distance in 1.65 seconds. That means the player would have to run an additional 16.71 yards to get to their target, or an extra 1.71 yards. That distance would take them 1.838 seconds, and that doesn't count the extra time to change direction. The time it took the player total to get from their starting spot to the target with the bad angle is 3.488 seconds - equivalent to a 40 time of 4.65.
What does that little exercise mean? It means that someone who is perceived as slow (4.65 40 time) could get to a spot on the field just as fast as a player who is perceived as fast (4.40 40 time), if the fast player made only a slight error in the angle that they took.
Taking good angles is all about good coaching and player instincts.
Question Three: Is The SEC Really That Much Better?
Year after year you hear and read all about how the SEC is the greatest college football conference ever. It has the best competition. It has the best fans. It has the best top to bottom teams. It has the best teams in the nation. The list of phrases and praise goes on and on.
Let's take a look at the historical record. Against non-BCS conferences, their winning percentage is undoubtedly high. That is to be expected. However, against BCS conference teams, the playing field is decidedly more even. SEC teams have a winning percentage of 60% over BCS conference teams. It is important to note that that is inflated by the fact that 1 out of every 2 games against a BCS conference opponent was against an ACC team - the ACC being a historically weaker conference with less powerhouse teams than say the Big 10, Pac 10 or Big 12. Subtract out the ACC games and the SEC only has a winning percentage of 54%.
But of course people want to take a snapshot of the recent past. How about the last 2008 college football season? Suite101.com compiled a list of the records of BCS conference teams plus Mountain West Conference Teams against each of those conferences. Which conference came out on top? The Mountain West! The ACC was 2nd, and then in order SEC, Big 12, Big East, Pac 10 and Big 10. Ask Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide if their SEC speed helped against the feisty Utes from Utah (MWC). Chances are they wouldn't be too happy.
A Utah Ute not being caught from behind by SEC Speed
The only conference to get the best of the Mountain West was the Big 12, who went 3-1 against the MWC. Subtract that out, and Mountain West teams were 9-2 against BCS conference teams. Meanwhile, the topic of this article - the SEC - was a very average 11-11 against "top caliber opponents".
Let's take it a step further. The Abstract Statistician had a nice breakdown of all of these conference vs. conference records for the 2008 season. The SEC in their schedule had a combined winning percentage of 56.6%. That may seem stellar, but consider that the Big 12 and Big East both had slightly better, but comparable winning percentages in their schedules around 57%. The ACC and Mountain West were not far behind either (several percentage points).
Consider also that the SEC was a combined 31-1 against Conference USA, Independents, the MAC, the Sun Belt, the WAC and FCS teams. The SEC was 10-13 against everyone else in non-conference play. Not remarkable at all.
What Have We Learned?
The 40 yard dash is really irrelevant in terms of "team speed". Team speed is a combination of sprint speed, agility, and angles/football smarts. A team with all three of those assets will be really fast, but a lack of sprint speed can be easily compensated for by taking proper angles and being able to shed blocks - two very coachable things.
If you DO decide to use the 40 yard dash to gauge speed of conferences, the SEC is not necessarily the best. In fact, many other conferences have put up better showings, including the often maligned Big 10.
Finally, even if all of my math and statistics are wrong, we can still look at empirical data - the records of the non-conference games. And in non-conference games the SEC consistently beats up on lesser competition, but is very average against BCS conference teams and the Mountain West conference. Statistics and 40 times can lie, but game results don't.
So next time you hear the "SEC speed" myth, I sincerely hope that you throw some of these stats out. Then, maybe we can finally put this one to bed...
Note: I have nothing against the SEC conference. I admire a lot of teams from the SEC conference. I just can't stand when everyone suggests that SEC teams are so much faster than everyone else. Like I said in this article, I think a lot of it has to do with coaching, and other talents besides speed. And there are quite a few great coaches in the SEC.
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Comments
SEC still has a speed advantage
The difference is in the lines. The DEs and LBs at Florida and LSU are faster than the ones in the Big Ten. As for the offensive lines, SEC teams rarely run a true pro-set offense. With the exception of Ole Miss’ Michael Oher and Bama’s Andre Smith, SEC teams do not have that massive anchor lineman. Instead are tall linemen who use a quick punch to open holes. These guys also have to pull and get up field quicker. That is the speed difference.
Also, you used Bama’s loss to Utah as an example of how the SEC Speed myth is dead. Utah and Florida run the same system. Those are the only teams Bama lost to. Maybe Bama can’t solve those systems.
I agree skill position guys are about the same nationwide. But, it seems the SEC and the top Big 12 and Pac 10 schools have the fastest non-skill guys.
mlmintampa
UF C/O 06
by mlmintampa on Mar 12, 2009 11:57 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
With due respect to your counterargument
When you hear the term “SEC speed”, it is referring to the defensive side of the ball. Nobody ever argued that the SEC had faster receivers than everybody else.
Using 40 times from offensive players to debunk a widely held notion about speed on the defensive side of the ball was probably a poor decision.
by kidbourbon on Mar 12, 2009 1:29 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow talk about opening a can of worms...
I wasn’t expecting this to elicit this kind of response. Anyways, I’ve seen some not so favorable opinions of the article from some SEC people, so let me make a few concessions and responses.
@ mimintampa: Thanks for the response! I actually agree with just about everything you said.
The difference is in the lines. The DEs and LBs at Florida and LSU are faster than the ones in the Big Ten.
I would actually tend to agree with that. I think the difference between SEC defenses and other defenses is the LB and DE. I also think that those players in the SEC tend to have great quickness and explosion. Good reply. P.S. The Utah/Bama thing was more of a bad attempt at a joke than actually trying to assert that Utah was speedier.
The point of the article was to dispel the myth that SEC teams are just a step above all other teams, or that SEC teams are that much faster. I tried to keep the article from getting too long or I would have added the exception about the defensive front seven tending to be more explosive in the SEC.
Of course, many of people’s perceptions of “SEC speed” have to do with a qualitative approach rather than a quantitative approach. Seeing a guy in the SEC blow right by a Big 10 player, stuff like that. When you actually put numbers to it, you see that the gap is actually not that large.
Someone actually compared Florida, LSU and Ohio State by position back in 2007 and using 40 times. The Ohio State players were actually faster than either of the SEC schools at every defensive position other than defensive tackle. Perhaps the defensive players aren’t much faster in the SEC? So kidbourbon, I can understand your perspective, and I addressed this in my reply to mimintampa, but here’s what I’m driving at…
IMO the elite schools who consistently get top recruiting classes have the best “team speed”. It has nothing to do with conference or geographical region. This elite class includes teams like Florida, Tennessee, LSU, and Georgia but also non-SEC schools like OU, Texas, USC, Miami, Ohio State, Michigan, etc.
I’ll also make it clear that this is not a bitter commentary in regards to the result of the national championship game. Florida was the better team and they deserved to win. We choked on our goal line opportunities. But I had Florida fans tell me after the game that they were extremely impressed with OU’s defense, and yes, how fast they were. I’ll also say right now that most Florida fans were very cordial and as a fan base pretty nice.
And yes, I still do hear the phrase “SEC speed” thrown around quite a bit, or at least praise for the SEC for being a vastly superior conference.
Also, I am aware that a faster guy could take correct angles and thus still get to a spot on the field faster than someone who runs slower. That was merely an exercise to show that there are other factors to how “speedy” someone is than how fast they can run in a straight line.
Let me close by saying and underscoring that the SEC is a great football conference with a high level of competition and lots of talented teams. Undoubtedly there are many very fast players in the SEC as well. However, I was merely hoping to prove that there is speed in some other conferences as well.
by dishingoutdimes on Mar 12, 2009 5:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
also
there was the debate as to whether or not SEC defenses were that good, or SEC offenses were just that bad. It was exactly the same as the debate about Big 12 offenses and defenses last year. I’m not going to touch that one, but I was hoping to analyze the statistics and see whether the Big 12 offenses were overrated last year, or they weren’t and the defenses simply couldn’t keep up.
by dishingoutdimes on Mar 12, 2009 5:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good post but...
I’m curious as to where this statement originatedKnowshon Moreno, RB from Georgia, is considered to be a speed back. ? I know nobody in Bulldawg nation considered Moreno a speed back and from watching games and replays the con most stated by the commentators was his lack of breakaway speed. What makes Moreno a great back is his ability to make something out of absolutely nothing. I’m not sure what label you put on that, maybe elusiveness, but that’s why he’s going to be on an NFL roster.
Other than that I agree with your post. I think there is way too much emphasis put on the 40-yard dash times and the whole SEC speed thing is a little overblown. Ted Ginn, jr was one of the fastest players I’ve ever seen in pads and we all know where he played college ball.
by deanpat92 on Mar 13, 2009 6:29 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Line Times
I’d be curious to see if the “lines are faster” idea or “defensive side is faster” (I notice it keeps changing) idea is true. Is it possible to compare combine 40 yrd and/or shuttle times for lineman in the different conferences or defensive players in the different conferences?
I would guess you’d find no statistical difference between them but I’d be really interested in the results of such a survey.
by Nickel667 on Mar 13, 2009 5:55 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
SEC
You should also consider the SEC record this year in bowl games which are against the best teams and their record was 6 wins 2 losses.
by harm99 on Mar 24, 2009 4:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Team speed
Team speed changes the game. The SEC has speed at defensive ends and outside linebackers that the Big Ten doesn’t even attempt to equal. To run outside in the SEC, you’ve got to have world-class speed. Otherwise, you don’t even try.
A lot of SEC tackles would be ends in the Big Ten. They run like Big Ten ends.
Nobody thinks of backs and receivers as where the SEC holds a speed advantage over other conferences, but your comments on those deserve rebuttal. Knowshon Moreno was not known as a speed back, much less Glen Coffee. Not in the way that Darren McFadden and Felix Jones were speed backs. Coffee was always a 4.6-ish plugger, very much in the Big Ten mold. Moreno was more quick than fast, and he wasn’t exactly in top form at the combine either.
Big Ten teams recruit speed at the obvious positions, but they aren’t going to have fullbacks like LSU and Arkansas have had, who were fast enough to be tailbacks in the NFL. The Big Ten doesn’t have safety speed at outside linebacker, or linebacker speed at end, or end speed at tackle. They’re much too concerned with inside power.
by Biggus Piggus on Mar 25, 2009 12:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs














