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Around SBN: Odds On Peyton Manning's Next Home Includes Three Teams

Florida’s Offense By The Numbers


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There’s good news and bad news for Oklahoma when it comes to facing the Florida Gator’s offense. First, the bad news is that the Sooners haven’t faced a team this season with the type of offensive success that the Gators have had. Florida is 3rd in the nation, behind Oklahoma and Tulsa, in points scored per game at 45.2. We can break it down anyway that we’d like but it doesn’t change the fact that Florida is the most dominant team in the country when it comes to both offensive and defensive stats.

Now on to the good news. Florida runs the spread offense and while the Sooners haven’t played them they have played the 4th, 5th and 6th ranked offenses and they are all separated from Florida’s scoring average by 2 points or less and run the same offenses. If there ever was a prep class for facing the spread offense it is playing in the Big 12 conference where just about every opponent runs the spread.

Team Points Per Game Offensive Ranking
Florida 45.2 3rd
Texas Tech 44.6 4th
Texas 43.9 5th
Missouri 43.2 6th
OSU 41.6 9th
Nebraska 36.2 18th
KSU 34.9 21st

There has been a lot of scrutiny in regards to Oklahoma’s defense. The Sooners are giving up an average 24.5 points per game leaving most of the Gator Nation (and a good portion of the Sooner Nation as well) wondering how in the world they are going to stop Tim Tebow and company. Fact is, Oklahoma has already played against 7 of the nation’s top 25 scoring offenses and has faired pretty well.

Please don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying that the Sooners will stop the Gators with relative ease but just bringing up the point that there isn’t much more that Florida can bring to the table that Oklahoma hasn’t already seen. My opinion of the Gators is that they are equivalent to a Missouri or Oklahoma State offense with better athletes. As with those teams OU must play for stops and not necessarily a shutout. The Sooners must simply limit them because the Gators are going to score. They have a proven track record of it.

Opponent Florida’s Points Season Average
Hawaii 56 27.3
Miami (FL) 26 24.2
Tennessee 30 16.8
Mississippi 30 17.8
Arkansas 38 31.2
LSU 51 25.9
Kentucky 63 21.7
Georgia 49 25.6
Vanderbilt 42 20.1
S. Carolina 56 20.3
Citadel 70 32.8
Florida State 45 20.8
Alabama 31 13

I have a lot of faith in Oklahoma’s offense just because I have yet to see a team stop them. In my mind the worst case scenario for Sam Bradford and company is 35 points so if the Sooner defense can hold the Gators to between 28-31 points I believe national championship number 8 is on the way. Should the Gators be able to push the point total beyond that then trouble is brewing.

Gators in the Air! Comp/G Att/G Yards/G TD INT
Florida’s Passing Attack 14.8 23 212.6 31 3
Gators on the Ground! Att/G AVG Yards/G TD Long
Florida’s Rushing Attack 38.5 6.0 229.8 41 80

We still have plenty of time to discuss game plans but initially it appears that Oklahoma needs to follow the same game plans they used for Missouri and Oklahoma State. They need to stop the run, account for Percy Harvin and contain Tim Tebow. Obviously it is easier said than done but there is a way and we’ll discuss it in future posts.  

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Hmmm...

Not all spread offenses are created equal. We run a spread option, which is a run heavy variant, and that’s a significant nuance. Texas Tech and Missouri definitely do not run an offense similar to ours, so they shouldn’t even be under consideration. I haven’t seen enough of the other teams you list (except for the Longhorns) to judge them, but that stats indicate that OSU is the most like us in play selection while Nebraska and KSU are too balanced. I’ve watched Texas play and I think they’re probably the closest thing you’ve seen to us, but it’s not a perfect fit either. Just as you expect your Sooners to live up to their offensive floor, I don’t see my Gators falling below theirs. It looks like your prediction is Oklahoma 35+, Florida 31-; is that accurate? I’m still working on mine…

Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/

by ejruiz on Dec 11, 2008 7:09 PM CST reply actions  

I was thinking OSU is the closest to F

OSU runs the spread option most of the time. Robinson the QB for OSU is a very good with the run and pass. With that said, defending the spread with a running QB is what OU has seen almost all season in the B12 South. That offense is going to get some yards b oth on the ground and in the air no matter what school runs it. Some teams do better than others.

I am thinking of higher scores than those already posted. OU 40+ FL 40+. With no turnovers the team with the ball last wins. With turnovers… anything can happen.

by scarab on Dec 11, 2008 10:10 PM CST reply actions  

I agree that o-state is the offense most like Florida's

but the point I was trying to make is that OU has faced just about every spread attack out there and has done fairly well. They were even doing a solid job against Texas until Reynolds went out.

by ccmachine on Dec 11, 2008 10:16 PM CST reply actions  

Reynolds.

Will he be back for the Championship Game? In fact, are you guys expecting anyone that you haven’t had in a while coming back? Heck, you could just tell me which significant players will be out for the game and that might suffice. The Gators will likely have Rainey and Harvin back (out against Bama) and, despite a weakened rotation along the DL (the key guys will be there, I believe), we should be at full strength.

Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/

by ejruiz on Dec 12, 2008 3:17 AM CST up reply actions  

Reynolds will not be back

However, his replacement Austin Box most likely will be. Other than that the Sooners should be pretty close to 100% healthy.

by ccmachine on Dec 12, 2008 10:39 AM CST up reply actions  

I hate how everyone is depicting OU as having an "average" defense

First, I too agree that O-State’s offense is similar only Robinson is much more elusive (and McCoy for that matter) than Tebow. How many times did OU have either of those guys for 10 yard losses only to have them escape and turn it into a positive gain. I don’t think Tebow is nearly as elusive as those two, but he’s physically stronger and more of a hoss to have to bring down, but I like our odds of containing him in the pocket better than we did with McCoy or Robinson.

The fact is when you run a spread offense, you are playing up tempo ball and you’re going to give up some points because you are going to have more possessions than an “average” game and that means the other team is going to get the ball more as well.
  
They used to say OU’s basketball team in the mid to late 80’s didn’t have a very good defense either becuase they scored 100 pts. a game and gave up 85-90 to opponents. The fact was that they were a hell of a defensive team but never got credit for it because they allowed so many points per game due to the tempo of the game and the number of possessions the opponent got.

In the end, who really cares if the defense allows 28 or 35 points if your offense scores 40 or 50? I don’t.

by Dave Sieger's Jumpshot on Dec 12, 2008 3:11 PM CST up reply actions  

very good points.

Pat Jones has said that TBO is his own fullback. UGH. He might not be as elusive as Robinson or McCoy but we better have someone willing to take for the team to stop this bulldozer. Key: How do you stop a bulldozer ? take out the tracks! If the Sooners try to finesse tacke TBO will keep on moving, if the Sooners try to tackle him head-on or from the waist up get a Crimson stretcher. The way to stop TBO is to wrap him up in leg tackles with the shoulder driving into his gut! Do this enough times and he will stop! Take the tracks out and the bulldozer don’t move much.

by scarab on Dec 12, 2008 5:25 PM CST up reply actions  

i think the one thing everyone is forgetting is that there’s a month off for both teams. i kno that each team scores ridicules amounts of points but i think with all this time off that both def. are going to have the upper hand.

by babyboomer on Dec 12, 2008 4:27 PM CST reply actions  

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